Bailey Ober’s track record no longer guarantees him a place in the Twins’ rotation.
Minnesota has reached the point where the 31-year-old’s experience has to be weighed against everything else: his recent production, his salary outlook, and the pressure to find out what younger arms can do. Ober finished 2026 with a 4.47 ERA and 1.30 WHIP in 131 innings, better than his 5.10 ERA in 2025, but still not enough to make the decision simple.
The strikeout drop is part of the issue. Ober fanned 96 batters in 131 innings this season, down from 191 strikeouts in 178.2 innings in 2024. That pushed him from 9.6 strikeouts per nine innings to about 6.6, a shift that makes a pitcher more reliant on balls in play and the defense behind him.
The money side matters just as much. Ober is arbitration-eligible and could become a free agent after 2027, which means Minnesota has to decide whether his remaining team control is more valuable on the mound or as a trade chip.
MLB Trade Rumors projected his 2027 salary at $6.9 million, as noted in Twins On SI’s arbitration outlook. That figure is only an estimate, but it gives the front office a useful place to start.
And the rotation picture has gotten crowded. Taj Bradley, Joe Ryan and Dean Kremer are already in the mix, Pablo López could return to deepen the group, and Connor Prielipp and Zebby Matthews are pushing for chances. If López is back and Minnesota keeps Bradley, Ryan and Kremer in place, Ober’s spot starts to look less like a lock and more like an obstacle for someone else.
Prielipp’s situation stands out most. He made 22 starts and threw 125.2 innings in his first Major League campaign. The results were uneven, but he has already banked real innings, and that matters when a club is trying to sort out its long-term plan.
There’s also the broader contract clock to consider. Ryan, López and Kremer can also reach free agency after 2027, which gives Minnesota another reason to lean into younger starters now rather than wait.
Still, Ober’s case for staying isn’t flimsy. Pitching depth has a way of evaporating fast, and López is coming back from Tommy John surgery.
MLB’s October assessment warned that he might not immediately get all the way back to full effectiveness. If the alternatives wobble or get hurt, 131 innings from Ober becomes a lot harder to replace.
His ERA improvement also gives the Twins something real to think about. At the projected salary, a rebound season could be a worthwhile investment. Moving him now, after two seasons below his 2024 level, might not bring back much.
That’s why Minnesota’s approach should be firm, not automatic. The club should set a trade price that reflects Ober’s value and its own need for depth, and it should be prepared to act if the return is worthwhile. Prielipp should get the first crack at an opening, with Matthews in the fight and López’s rehab helping shape the final rotation picture.
If the market is thin or the medical picture turns, keeping Ober and letting the competition play out would make sense. What the Twins should not do is preserve his old role out of habit. A non-tender would only make sense if the team concludes his projected production no longer matches the cost.
The Star Tribune reported that Minnesota was open to trading a starter. Identifying Ober as the likeliest one to move is analysis, not a reported team decision.
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