There’s been plenty of buzz about whether the Minnesota Timberwolves have closed the gap on the San Antonio Spurs and Oklahoma City Thunder after their aggressive offseason moves. The Wolves may have moved closer to that top tier, but in the regular season they’ll probably be right back in the same neighborhood as the Denver Nuggets, Houston Rockets, and Los Angeles Lakers. Those four teams were separated by just five games last season, and there’s a good chance the race stays just as tight.
If Minnesota ends up in the first round against one of those clubs again, here’s how the matchup threat level stacks up.
The Lakers come in at No. 1, and they’re the team with the clearest ways to make life difficult for Minnesota. Even with the Timberwolves’ elite perimeter defense, led by Jaden McDaniels, dealing with Luka Doncic and Austin Reaves is no easy task.
And while LeBron James is gone, this roster makes more sense built around Luka. Walker Kessler gives him the kind of rim protection and lob threat he needs, and the rest of the group brings enough spacing and off-ball support to keep things moving.
There are real echoes here of the 2024 Dallas Mavericks.
That said, the Lakers still have obvious problems against Minnesota. They don’t have a true high-level on-ball stopper, which matters when Anthony Edwards and Ball are coming at you.
They also have a handful of defenders the Wolves can target, including Luka and Reaves. Minnesota doesn’t have a defensive weakness as glaring as Los Angeles does there, so the Wolves would still get the edge.
But among these three teams, the Lakers are the most complete and the one most likely to create headaches.
Denver lands at No. 2, and there’s a case to push them lower after Minnesota handled them in six games in April. The Nuggets didn’t really address the defense or athleticism issues the Wolves exposed, and that’s a problem.
DeMar DeRozan adds another scoring layer beyond the Nikola Jokic-Jamal Murray duo, but he also makes the defense worse. Peyton Watson, who missed the playoffs, is another loss on that end.
Minnesota would still have clear ways to attack Denver in a playoff series. The Wolves can hunt bad defenders, and Jaden McDaniels is a big part of that equation.
LaMelo also gives Minnesota another way to pressure the Nuggets’ defense. Still, Jokic changes the equation.
He’s a top-three player in the world, and no one on this list is better. The Wolves have had success against Denver, and Rudy Gobert shut him down while the team exposed his defense, but Jokic and the Nuggets remain an offensive force that’s tough to fully put away.
Houston sits at No. 3, and the Rockets could make things messy with their frontcourt size and physicality. But there are major problems with how the roster fits together.
A lot of that starts with Alperen Sengun, who isn’t a floor spacer or a rim protector. Minnesota’s ability to attack centers around the rim has already shown up against Nikola Jokic, and with LaMelo in the mix, that approach would only get stronger because the Wolves have an elite guard who thrives at cooking centers in the pick-and-roll.
The fit with Amen Thompson is another issue. Offensively, the two clog driving lanes and leave opponents free to ignore two non-shooters.
That’s exactly the kind of thing Minnesota’s defense would be eager to exploit. Even though Houston finished top-10 in both offensive and defensive rating, the cracks showed in clutch situations and in the playoffs, where the offense fell apart because of those spacing issues.
Fred VanVleet’s playmaking might help, but not enough to fix everything. The Rockets have real flaws, and the Wolves could absolutely expose them.
In Other News...
Bulls May Have A Jalen Smith Decision Worth Watching
Minnesotas frontcourt picture changed when Naz Reid was moved in the deal for LaMelo Ball, leaving Rudy Gobert without much proven help behind him. That has made the Timberwolves a team worth watching for any affordable big who can stretch the floor a little and chip in on the glass, especially if the answer does not come with the kind of salary strain that limits flexibility elsewhere on the roster.
One name that fits the profile is Jalen Smith, with Chicago now facing its own decision on how to handle him. Smith gives Minnesota the kind of interior depth it has been missing, and his blend of spacing and rebounding makes him a cleaner stylistic match than a lot of backup big options on the market, which is why this is the sort of move that could quietly make sense if the Bulls decide to listen. [Read more 🡒]
Chris Finch Now Faces A Wolves Challenge He Cant Ease Into
Chris Finch is already dealing with a different kind of depth chart problem as the Timberwolves move past Naz Reids departure, and the backup center spot suddenly looks like one of the more interesting development projects on the roster. Joan Beringer is expected to take on a bigger role, and Finch has framed that opportunity in the context of a young player still learning how to handle the demands that come with more minutes and more responsibility.
The challenge is bigger than just plugging in a reserve big, especially after Minnesota added LaMelo Ball and Jonathan Kuminga and began sorting out how those pieces change the way the group wants to play. Finch also pointed back to the strain of last season and the coaching changes around him, with Pablo Prigioni promoted to lead assistant, underscoring that the Wolves are not easing into this next phase so much as adjusting on the fly while a few key questions remain open. [Read more 🡒]
Ayo Dosunmu Faces A Crowded Race For Wolves Bench Spotlight
Minnesotas bench picture is already drawing attention ahead of the new season, with Ayo Dosunmu emerging as a name to watch in the Wolves rotation. The conversation has been sharpened by the departure of Naz Reid, which leaves a real opening for someone to settle in as the primary option coming off the bench and provide the kind of steady second-unit production Minnesota will need.
Dosunmu is hardly the only guard or wing in the broader Sixth Man of the Year mix, either. Dylan Harper, Ace Bailey, Reed Sheppard, Jrue Holiday and Ajay Mitchell are all expected to be part of a crowded race, and several of those roles still need to be defined before the season starts. For Minnesota, the main question is not just who can handle the bench spotlight, but who can separate himself in a field that looks deep and competitive from the start. [Read more 🡒]