With just nine games left in the regular season, the Minnesota Timberwolves find themselves eyeing a potential first-round playoff matchup with the Denver Nuggets. While matchups with the Houston Rockets or Los Angeles Lakers remain possibilities, the odds are pointing towards Denver, and that’s a challenging prospect.
According to Basketball Reference, the Nuggets have a solid 77.6% chance of landing a four or five seed, while the Timberwolves sit at a 56.9% chance of securing those same spots. This statistical landscape suggests Denver is the most likely opponent for Minnesota, and it’s not exactly the matchup the Wolves would prefer.
The Timberwolves, like every team in the West, would ideally face the Rockets, but Houston appears to be the least likely contender for Minnesota.
Now, let’s not jump to conclusions-Denver isn’t guaranteed a victory over Minnesota. However, they present a tougher challenge than the Rockets or Lakers.
The Nuggets: A Tough Out for the Timberwolves
Sure, the Lakers have been hot, boasting a 9-1 record in their last 10 games. Their defense has climbed to ninth in March, but the Nuggets have playoff grit that can’t be overlooked. Despite Minnesota’s past success against Denver, facing a team led by Nikola Jokic is never ideal.
Rudy Gobert’s prowess as a rim protector is well-known, yet the Timberwolves have struggled to contain Jokic, who’s averaging a staggering 35.8 points, 15 rebounds, and 11.3 assists against them this season. It’s not a knock on Rudy, but the Wolves’ frontcourt defense beyond him has been shaky. Even with Kyle Anderson and Julius Randle stepping up defensively, Jokic remains a tough matchup for any team.
Denver’s improved 3-point shooting only complicates things further, enhancing their ability to keep pace with Minnesota’s own perimeter threats.
On the flip side, last year’s playoffs showed the Timberwolves can contain elite players like Luka Doncic by disrupting his playmaking and switching on pick-and-rolls effectively.
While the Nuggets aren’t known for their defensive prowess, they have more defensive options to challenge Anthony Edwards than the Lakers do. Denver can throw Peyton Watson, Christian Braun, Aaron Gordon, or Spencer Jones at him, whereas the Lakers primarily rely on Marcus Smart for perimeter defense.
The Lakers did manage to stifle Edwards recently by “building a wall,” but sustaining that strategy in a playoff series seems unlikely, especially given their overall defensive struggles.
In summary, the Nuggets pose the most formidable challenge for the Timberwolves in the first round, making them the team with the best chance to send Minnesota packing.