The Minnesota Timberwolves made a major offseason bet when they traded for LaMelo Ball, but the most important part of that move might not show up in the standings.
That’s the key thing to understand about this deal: it was made for the postseason, not for a flashy regular-season leap. Minnesota has already shown it can be a tough out once the games matter most, reaching the conference finals in 2025 and knocking off the Denver Nuggets this past season.
The hope is that Ball helps push that into a top-three seed. But the real payoff is bigger than that.
The Timberwolves have spent the last two seasons looking a little ordinary in the regular season relative to their talent. They won 49 games and finished as the No. 6 seed in back-to-back seasons. And even after adding Ball, there’s no reason to assume they suddenly become a runaway force in the West.
That’s partly because the regular season is a strange beast. Seeding doesn’t always line up neatly with playoff success, and this decade’s Finals matchups have each included at least one team that wasn’t a top-two seed. In a conference where the margins are already tight, the new flattened lottery odds make things even more compressed.
The West has been a perfect example of that. Last season, only two games separated the three and five seeds.
The year before, the gap between the three and six seeds was just one game. Add in the fact that teams with major new pieces often need time to settle in, and it’s easy to see why Minnesota may not suddenly sprint up the ladder.
Last year, the Wolves were packed into a crowded race with the Nuggets, Los Angeles Lakers, and Houston Rockets for the three through six spots. There’s no strong reason to expect that fight to look dramatically different.
Barring a major injury, the San Antonio Spurs and Oklahoma City Thunder still look like the clear top two seeds. Minnesota might well be the best of the next group in a playoff series, but the regular season is a different animal.
LaMelo’s injury history adds risk, and even if he stays on the floor, the Wolves may need time to build chemistry around him. There’s also the lingering concern at power forward, which only adds to the volatility.
If Minnesota ends up third, that probably means a tight race and a win total in the low 50s rather than something far more explosive. That matters because the Timberwolves’ over-under sits at 49.5 wins, a familiar number for a team that has lived in this range.
Still, the bigger story is what this trade means when the bracket gets set.
Tim Connelly and the Timberwolves didn’t make this move because they believed it would suddenly make them better than San Antonio or Oklahoma City in the regular season. They made it because they wanted a real shot at a championship jump. And that’s where Ball fits.
He gives Anthony Edwards a dependable second option and addresses two of Minnesota’s biggest needs: secondary creation and playmaking. The Wolves also have enough ball-handling and shooting to create answers against the rim-protection edge that San Antonio and OKC bring.
The teams sitting in that three-through-six range all have obvious issues. Minnesota’s is forward depth.
Denver still has defensive problems. The Lakers don’t have a clear on-ball stopper.
Houston lacks shooting and rim protection.
The Wolves aren’t flawless either, but their issues feel more manageable. With a high-powered offense, Rudy Gobert anchoring the rim, and Jaden McDaniels handling point-of-attack defense, Minnesota has a workable championship blueprint.
And while the Timberwolves have already had real playoff success, their shortage of playmaking and creation around Ant has shown up at the worst times. Ball should help there, even without playoff experience of his own. His skill set gives Minnesota more options in the moments that decide series.
So if the Timberwolves don’t explode in the regular season, that’s not a reason to panic. The point of this trade is what it unlocks in the playoffs, where Ball’s value should matter most.
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