Rob Dillingham is about to find out what kind of NBA player he really is.
The former Timberwolves guard enters his third season with the kind of pressure that comes with being a lottery pick who still hasn’t locked down a role. Minnesota traded up in the 2024 draft to grab Dillingham at No. 8, betting on a guard who could create for himself and for others.
The fit made sense right away. So did the hope that he’d grow into a bigger job after Nickeil Alexander-Walker moved on.
That never happened in Minnesota. Dillingham couldn’t earn Chris Finch’s trust, his minutes stayed scarce, and the production never followed.
He finished with averages of 3.5 points on 33.3 percent shooting from the field before slipping out of the rotation by December. The Wolves eventually sent him to the Chicago Bulls in the deal that brought Ayo Dosunmu to Minnesota, and that move gave Dillingham a clean slate.
In Chicago, he did see more court time and his numbers climbed a bit. But that hasn’t answered the biggest question hanging over him: is he actually someone a team can count on in a real rotation?
This season should go a long way toward settling that.
The Bulls are rebuilding, which means Dillingham should get legitimate minutes. He has to make them matter.
The league is too tight now to keep handing out opportunities forever, especially three years into a career. If a young player hasn’t shown he can stay on the floor by then, teams stop waiting around.
Dillingham probably isn’t in danger of disappearing from the league altogether. Because he was a lottery pick, he’ll likely still have an NBA roster spot in 2027-28.
But a bad season could shrink his path to rotation minutes and push his career in the wrong direction sooner than expected. There’s also the matter of Chicago’s $8.7 million team option next summer, which the Bulls could decline.
That context matters even more with new Bulls lead executive Bryson Graham in the picture. Graham has said he likes two-way players, and his ideal mold is summed up in the acronym SLAP: Size, Length, Athleticism, Physicality. Dillingham, listed at 6-foot-2 and 175 pounds, doesn’t exactly check those boxes.
So the question becomes simple: can he overcome that and force his way into a real role?
The answer starts on offense.
Oddly enough, defense has been the more encouraging part of Dillingham’s game so far at the NBA level. For a player with his size and the pre-draft concerns that came with it, he’s shown some bite on that end. He’s active on the ball and can rattle opponents into turnovers.
That doesn’t make him a plus defender, and it probably won’t ever be the foundation of his value. A guard built like Dillingham is going to have to earn his keep somewhere else.
That somewhere else is the offensive end, where things have been rough. Even after the deadline, when he averaged 9.6 points with the Bulls, the efficiency wasn’t there.
He shot 42.8 percent from the field and 30 percent from 3-point range. That’s not enough for a player who needs to sell a team on his upside.
His speed and handle still jump off the page. The problem is that they haven’t translated into easy finishes against NBA contact.
Unless he adds more strength, that’s going to remain a problem. Better shot-making would help him more immediately.
That’s especially true from deep. Dillingham shot 44.4 percent from 3-point range at Kentucky, but that number has dropped to 32.4 percent in the NBA.
For a guard in his position, that gap matters. There’s no obvious route to a major role if the jumper doesn’t come around.
He also has to sharpen his decision-making as a passer. His assist percentage sits at 18.9, while his turnover percentage is 18.3.
Too often, he hasn’t made the right read, and he’s not naturally a floor general. If he’s not going to become a high-level scorer, he has to become more reliable as a playmaker.
That’s a lot to fix. But if Dillingham can piece it together, there’s still a path to becoming a microwave scorer who can also give you useful playmaking.
Timberwolves fans will be watching, even if he’s doing it in Chicago now. And with a season this important, they won’t be the only ones.
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