Rob Dillingham entered the 2024 NBA Draft as one of the class’s most electric young guards. Minnesota thought enough of him to spend real draft capital to get him at No.
- Two years later, he’s out of the league and trying to figure out where the path went sideways.
That’s the question Rafael Barlowe dug into in a recent look at Dillingham’s slide. Was the NBA too quick to give up on a 21-year-old? Or did scouts miss something important from the start?
Barlowe said he was fully on board with Dillingham as a lottery talent during the draft process, and he initially liked the fit when Minnesota went after him on draft night.
“He would have an opportunity to learn behind Mike Conley, a smaller point guard who had built a long and successful NBA career. I thought Conley would be the perfect veteran mentor for Dillingham, someone who could help him understand how to run an NBA offense, manage games and make the adjustments necessary to succeed at the next level.”
But that optimism faded once the reality of the situation set in.
“Looking back, I wonder if I underestimated just how difficult that situation would be.”
Minnesota had acquired Dillingham’s draft rights from the San Antonio Spurs in a deal that sent out a protected 2030 first-round pick swap and an unprotected 2031 first-round pick. He never carved out a real role with the Wolves, and in February 2026 he was sent to the Chicago Bulls.
His time in Chicago didn’t last either. The Bulls moved him to the Charlotte Hornets, and Charlotte waived him in September without ever letting him suit up.
That collapse looks even stranger when you look back at what Dillingham did at Kentucky. He averaged 15.2 points, 3.9 assists, and 2.9 rebounds while shooting 47.5% from the field and 44.4% from three. The shot-making, creativity, and handle convinced Barlowe and others that he belonged in the lottery.
But Barlowe now says he may have underestimated the size of the NBA adjustment.
“I knew Dillingham was undersized. I knew there would be defensive challenges. But I was so impressed with his offensive talent that I may have underestimated just how exceptional he would need to be offensively to overcome those limitations.”
“Because there’s a difference between being a gifted offensive player and being so dynamic that an NBA team is willing to live with everything you give up on the defensive end.”
That’s the heart of the Dillingham debate. At roughly 6-foot-2 and 170 pounds, he has run into trouble against bigger, stronger NBA guards. And the offense never became overwhelming enough to cover the issues on the other end.
In his first 114 NBA appearances, Dillingham shot about 32.4% from three-point range. During 30 games with the Bulls, he averaged 9.6 points and 2.8 assists while hitting around 30.0% from beyond the arc.
Barlowe said one veteran scout kept warning him about that exact problem during the draft run-up.
“Throughout the 2024 draft process, almost every time I wrote an article praising Dillingham, a friend of mine who is a veteran NBA scout would push back. And his message was always the same.”
“‘Unless he’s Trae Young, he’s not going to make it.'”
That scout’s point was straightforward: undersized guards have to be exceptional enough offensively that teams can live with what they give back defensively. In his view, Dillingham simply wasn’t in that category.
“And unless Dillingham could become that type of offensive force, he didn’t think Rob would survive in the NBA.”
Barlowe also said his conversations with player development coaches pointed to another problem: Dillingham may need a very specific kind of setup to thrive.
One coach described him as a player who needs room to improvise.
“Rob needs freedom. He needs a system that allows him to be creative and maybe carve out his own role as a misfit small scoring guard who maybe doesn’t play every night but can change a game in January with his elite speed and burst of scoring.”
“And because a role like that currently doesn’t exist on most teams, he may never fit.”
That kind of runway wasn’t easy to find in Minnesota, where Chris Finch was focused on winning now. Another coach raised a broader issue, asking whether teams are doing enough to build around players whose strengths don’t match the usual NBA template.
“Does Rob have to adjust and conform to what the NBA wants him to be, a run-your-team, low-turnover, high-assist, high-three-point-percentage efficient guard who picks up 94 feet to combat his lack of size? Absolutely.”
“But if you scouted Rob and watched him since high school and college, and you know those aren’t his strengths, instead of boxing him into someone he isn’t, why not create an environment for him that will help him succeed?”
“Allow him to create his own lane and provide a structure where, yes, he can grow into what makes sense for the organization, but also allow him to be himself to an extent that doesn’t require overhauling what you do team wise.”
“I feel like that’s the responsibility of the organization when you draft a kid top 10 or so.”
Barlowe still put some of the burden on Dillingham himself. The guard has to get better as a shooter, a decision-maker, and a defender. But he also argued that Minnesota made a major investment in a player who needed patience.
He added that John Calipari may have gotten the most out of Dillingham at Kentucky by using him as a sixth man, even if that role didn’t prepare him to run a standard NBA offense.
That could help explain why Dillingham’s college production never carried over in the same way. Still, Barlowe isn’t closing the book on him.
At 21, Dillingham still has the burst and creativity that once made him a lottery pick. The next step will come down to whether an organization is willing to build around those strengths while helping patch the holes.
If that doesn’t happen soon, Barlowe said the next stop could be overseas, with Europe or China possible landing spots as Dillingham tries to rebuild his stock for another NBA shot.
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