Minnesota’s path through Big Ten play looks a lot less forgiving than one optimistic take might suggest, even if it came with an unexpected nod of approval for P.J. Fleck.
Star Tribune columnist Patrick Reusse, long one of Fleck’s sharpest critics, recently came around on the Gophers coach in a way that stands out. Reusse wrote that Fleck has matured, has resources, and no longer needs the kind of rumors and spin that once surrounded his job security. He also suggested Minnesota has enough in place to reach a minimum of 6-3 in Big Ten play.
That’s the number that invites the debate.
Because once the schedule gets laid out, those six wins start looking harder to find.
Minnesota opens conference play at Washington, and that’s no soft landing. The Huskies have been a monster at home, going 60-14 there since 2016 and stacking up 22 straight home wins before losing to Ohio State last season. They do have to replace their leading rusher and top receiver, but Jedd Fisch still brings back quarterback Demond Williams Jr. and most of a defense that should remain solid, even with some new pieces in the secondary.
Michigan is next, and that one comes with more uncertainty than certainty. The Wolverines have talent, and they nearly got beat by Minnesota in the last meeting, but there’s still the question of how quickly Kyle Whittingham can get things rolling and whether this group is ready to chase a Big Ten title right away. It’s in Minneapolis, which helps, but the Gophers still may not be favored.
Then comes a trip to Purdue in what looks like a game Minnesota has to have. Of course, Purdue probably sees it the same way.
Iowa is the kind of opponent that keeps showing up on the calendar and making life miserable. The Hawkeyes may be changing at quarterback and reshuffling on defense, but Kirk Ferentz’s team remains exactly what it has been for years: sturdy, annoying, and difficult to shake. Fleck has had a rough time with Iowa, going 1-8 against Minnesota’s border rival.
The road game at Indiana brings another major challenge. The defending national champions are 15-0 at home over the last two seasons under Curt Cignetti, and that alone says plenty.
UCLA might be the swing point for the schedule, and the Bruins could be one of the league’s most improved teams. The reasons start with the coaching change: DeShaun Foster is out, Bob Chesney is in.
UCLA is also hoping Chesney can bring some of the same spark he had at James Madison. He kept Nico Iamaleava in the fold and added 46 transfers, including seven key contributors from a Dukes team that made the College Football Playoff last season.
Penn State on the road is another brutal assignment, especially since Minnesota has not won at Beaver Stadium since 2003. There’s also plenty of uncertainty around the Nittany Lions, but Matt Campbell is a proven coach, and 24 of Penn State’s 39 incoming transfers came from Iowa State, including starting quarterback Rocco Becht. If Minnesota starts slowly, that game could get away fast.
Northwestern is not an automatic win either. David Braun has already beaten Minnesota twice, with the Wildcats outscoring the Gophers 75-69 in those two games combined. Now Braun has added Chip Kelly as offensive coordinator, which only raises the pressure on Minnesota in a game that already feels like one it needs.
And then there’s Wisconsin, which brings its own issues and, for some, a familiar urge to stay quiet.
So where exactly are the six wins supposed to come from?
If Indiana is off the board, that still leaves eight other games and only so much room for error. Michigan and Penn State?
Michigan and Iowa? Iowa and Penn State?
Washington and Penn State?
That’s the crux of it. Six Big Ten wins would be a strong season for Minnesota.
Nobody’s arguing otherwise. But looking at this slate, it’s hard to get there without seeing several games that feel like toss-ups at best and uphill climbs at worst.
The Big Ten doesn’t leave much room for hesitation anymore. And for Minnesota, the other question matters just as much as the schedule itself: how tough will the Gophers be when the season starts turning rough?
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