As Minnesota gears up for its bowl matchup against New Mexico, there’s plenty of intrigue surrounding a Lobos team that’s turned heads in year one under head coach Jason Eck. A nine-win regular season wasn’t just unexpected-it was historic by New Mexico standards.
The last time the Lobos hit that mark? 1997.
And with a shot at a 10th win on the line, this group is already in rarefied air.
Jason Eck’s Year One Spark
Nobody saw this coming. Sure, there was some optimism about a potential step forward under Eck, but nine wins?
That exceeded even the most optimistic preseason forecasts. This was a team expected to hover around .500-four, maybe five wins-but instead, they rolled to a 9-3 finish and put themselves in position to chase a double-digit win season for just the second time in program history.
That’s not just a strong debut-it’s a program reset.
Jack Layne: Efficient, Tough, and Trending Up
At the heart of New Mexico’s offensive success is quarterback Jack Layne. He’s not flashy, but he’s efficient-and that’s exactly what this offense needed.
Layne completed over 66% of his passes and earned a solid 76 grade from Pro Football Focus, but the real story is how he evolved throughout the season. During the Lobos’ six-game win streak, Layne threw just one interception and added a new wrinkle to his game: timely runs.
He’s not a dual-threat quarterback in the traditional sense, but he’s shown enough mobility to keep defenses honest and pick up tough yardage when plays break down.
Still, the turnover bug hasn’t completely disappeared. Early in the year, Layne struggled with interceptions, and if New Mexico wants to pull off an upset against Minnesota, protecting the football will be non-negotiable.
Injury and Opt-Out Update
The Lobos will be close to full strength, but not entirely. Starting right guard and team captain Richard Pearce has been away from the team since mid-November due to a personal matter, and it’s unclear if he’ll be available. That’s a potential blow to an offensive line that’s been key to New Mexico’s balanced attack.
Defensively, cornerback Abraham Williams-who missed the second half of the season with an undisclosed injury-still hasn’t been cleared, although he’s making progress. The secondary could feel his absence, especially against a Big Ten opponent with size and physicality on the outside.
On special teams, standout contributor Randolph Kpai won’t be available after entering the transfer portal. Outside of those absences, New Mexico should have most of its key pieces ready to go.
Defense Built to Stop the Run, But Watch Third Down
The Lobos’ defense has been anchored by first-team all-conference selections Jaxton Eck and Keyshawn James-Newby. That duo helped New Mexico finish second in the Mountain West in rushing defense, giving up just over 113 yards per game. That’s not just a stat-it’s a calling card for this team.
But there’s a soft spot, and it’s on third down. Opponents converted nearly 40% of their third-down attempts against the Lobos-an area that’s remained a thorn in their side all season. Against a Minnesota team that wants to control the clock and lean on its ground game, getting off the field on third down will be critical.
The Formula for an Upset
If New Mexico is going to knock off its second Big Ten opponent of the season, the blueprint is simple-but execution is everything. Run the ball effectively, limit explosive plays, and, above all, take care of the football. That formula worked earlier this season against UCLA, and while Minnesota presents a tougher challenge, the Lobos have shown they can rise to the occasion.
This one has the makings of a tight, physical contest. Expect New Mexico to bring the fight, but the margin for error is slim.
Prediction? Minnesota edges it out in a close one, 23-20.
But make no mistake-win or lose, the Lobos are already one of the best stories of the college football season.