Week 9 left a bad taste in the mouth on Betting the Big Ten. Michigan was among the six picks that missed the number, and the week finished 3-6, which pushed the season mark down to 51-45-1. The one bright spot was the USC call, and the Trojans made that one look easy against an Ohio State team that didn’t have much going for it.
Now comes a Week 10 board that should have been loaded, even if the Big Ten didn’t get every headline game it wanted. Oregon vs.
Ohio State was supposed to carry game-of-the-year weight, but Oregon has already faded into irrelevancy, leaving the conference with a more modest spotlight than expected. Still, there’s enough here to work with, and the slate opens with a Friday night game in Lincoln.
Nebraska heads to Illinois as a 4.5-point favorite with the total set at 49.5 for an 8 p.m. ET kickoff Friday.
The Cornhuskers have had a brutal stretch, blowing fourth-quarter leads in each of the last three weeks, but they’ve still managed to be profitable against the number. Nebraska is 6-2 ATS overall and has covered four of its last five.
Illinois is only 3-4-1 ATS, and the defense is the issue - it sits near the bottom in just about every statistical category. The pick is Nebraska -4.5.
Saturday starts with UCLA at Minnesota, where the Bruins are laying 5.5 points and the total is 39.5. UCLA is a perfect 8-0 ATS, and that kind of run is hard to walk away from.
Minnesota has been solid too at 6-2 ATS, so this is no cakewalk, but the Bruins keep cashing tickets. The pick is UCLA -5.5.
Maryland and Purdue meet in a game with a 56.5 total and Purdue favored by 6. The two teams have been almost interchangeable from a betting standpoint.
Maryland is 3-4-1 ATS, Purdue is 3-5, and both are 6-2 to the over. The defenses are the real selling point here, though not in a good way.
Maryland ranks 122nd nationally in scoring defense, Purdue is 124th, and the recent trends point the same direction: Purdue has gone over in three of its last five, Maryland in four of its last five. The pick is over 56.5.
The Oregon-Ohio State matchup has already seen the line swing all over the place. It opened with Ohio State as a 14-point favorite before the Buckeye loss in Los Angeles sent it tumbling to 6, then back up to 7.5.
The total sits at 46.5, and the play here is the under. Ohio State’s defense remains elite despite the USC game, Oregon’s offense has its issues, and both teams are dealing with backup quarterbacks.
The pick is under 46.5.
Penn State at Washington has also seen a notable move, with the line shifting from Penn State -1.5 on Sunday to Washington -2.5 by the end of the week. That kind of move matters, and the pick follows it.
The total is 44.5 for the 3:30 p.m. ET game, but the side is Washington -2.5.
Rutgers goes to Wisconsin at 4:15 p.m. ET with the Badgers favored by 17.5 and the total at 45.5.
Wisconsin is coming off a rough 30-0 loss at Iowa after the earlier upset over USC, and this is the kind of spot where a response is needed. Rutgers is 500 ATS overall, but Wisconsin has been better at home at 3-1 ATS, while Rutgers is 1-2 ATS on the road.
The pick is Wisconsin -17.5.
Iowa at Northwestern is set for 7:30 p.m. ET with Northwestern laying 3 and the total at 45.5.
It feels like a CFP elimination game in the sense that the loser is done, with three losses likely too much to overcome. The total is tricky because Iowa usually drags games under while Northwestern often goes over, so the side is the cleaner angle.
Northwestern is 4-1 at Ryan Field and comes in looking to bounce back from a tough loss at Oregon. The pick is Northwestern -3.
The night ends with Michigan State at Michigan, another rivalry meeting with two new head coaches again. Michigan is favored by 13.5 and the total is 39.5.
The Wolverines have been a mess as a favorite, going 1-5 ATS, while Michigan State hasn’t exactly been trustworthy as an underdog either. The better play is the under.
Michigan’s offense ranks 115th nationally in scoring, Michigan State’s is 125th, and while Michigan’s defense is the best unit in the game, there’s no reason to expect the Wolverines’ offense to suddenly start rolling against MSU. The pick is under 39.5.
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