The Celtics are back at TD Garden chasing a fifth straight home win, but this one comes with a few wrinkles. Boston enters at 5-2 overall and 4-0 at home, while Milwaukee arrives at 1-6 and 0-3 on the road after dropping three straight. It’s also the first of three meetings between the teams.
The biggest question hanging over Boston is the injury report. Jayson Tatum and Payton Pritchard both landed on it, which could leave the Celtics a little short-handed on a night when they’re already working through a packed stretch.
Boston is coming off a road split, beating Orlando 108-97 before falling to the Rockets 109-93. That 93-point outing was their lowest total of the season.
Through seven games, the Celtics are averaging 115.0 points and giving up 109.1.
Milwaukee’s recent slide has been uglier. The Bucks were beaten by 25 by the Cave Cavsby 12 by Minnesota before heading to Boston.
They’re scoring 111.1 points per game and allowing 124.1, which leaves them with the second-worst point differential in the conference. Tyler Herro leads the Bucks at 21.9 points per game, and Jaime Jaquez Jr. is adding 16.6 points and 7.3 rebounds.
One of the clearest battlegrounds is on the glass. Boston’s shot-making has been shaky lately, but offensive rebounding has helped them survive some rough nights.
Milwaukee, though, ranks fifth in the NBA in defensive rebounds per game and 10th in defensive rebound percentage. That makes second-chance chances harder to come by, even if Boston can still find openings for putbacks and extra possessions.
Another place the Celtics can hurt Milwaukee is in transition. The Bucks are the seventh-worst team in the league at preventing steals, giving up 9.6 per game, and they also allow the third-most three-pointers. That combination can turn into fast-break looks and clean catch-and-shoot threes, especially against a Boston defense that forces the fifth-most turnovers in the league.
Payton Pritchard is a name to watch if he’s available. He needs a bounce-back night, and this matchup could give him one if he can attack a defense that’s retreating. If he plays, the setup is there for him to get going.
Still, this isn’t a simple spot for Boston. It’s the fourth game in six nights, fatigue is part of the picture, and the Celtics head right back out to Charlotte afterward. That kind of home stop can sometimes dull the edge a little and lead to a slow start.
Milwaukee’s rebounding should keep things from getting completely out of hand, but Boston’s ability to force turnovers and run should be enough to create separation. Prediction: Celtics 117, Bucks 100.
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