Tyler Herro is walking into next season with a lot to sort out in Milwaukee, and the Bucks are betting patience will be worth more than a quick deal.
After sending Giannis Antetokounmpo out, Herro stands as the highest-profile piece coming back in that move, and the Bucks have resisted the urge to flip him this offseason for a modest return. That restraint could end up being the smarter play. If Herro puts together a strong start, Milwaukee may find itself holding a far more attractive trade chip by the deadline, when contenders in need of another scorer tend to get desperate.
That market should only get hotter if Herro does what he’s built to do: score. Milwaukee passed on selling low after an injury-hit season that dragged down his value, and next season gives him a clean shot to rebuild it.
Even with the Bucks planning to lean into development for their younger players, Herro is still the most accomplished scorer on the roster. He has five straight seasons of at least 20 points per game, and he should remain a central offensive piece whenever he’s on the floor.
The key for Milwaukee is making sure the numbers come with efficiency. A big scoring average won’t mean much if the shooting doesn’t travel with it.
The sweet spot would be something like 23 to 25 points per game while keeping the efficiency strong. That’s the version of Herro other teams will care about - a player who can work as a featured scorer but also fit as a high-end support piece when needed.
That should be possible in Milwaukee’s setup. Herro can get plenty of on-ball reps, but he should also see time playing off the ball alongside Ryan Rollins and Kevin Porter Jr., both of whom are more natural point guards.
The one factor that could push the Bucks to move faster is Herro’s contract. He’s headed for unrestricted free agency unless he signs an extension first.
Even so, Milwaukee has room to maneuver. The Bucks could work out an extension that still keeps him trade-eligible, which would fit his current value relative to the contract.
They could also wait and find a deadline partner willing to extend him right away.
For now, though, there’s no reason to force the issue. Milwaukee’s approach with Tyler Herro looks sound, and waiting may be the best way to squeeze the most value out of him.
If he starts the season well, the Bucks may end up with more leverage than they would have had by dealing him early. In the end, Herro’s next contract and next destination may come down to how he performs once the season begins.
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