The Milwaukee Bucks are heading into the All-Star break with a record that’s hard to ignore - 23-30 and sitting below .500 at this point in the season for the first time since 2015-16. That year, they limped to the finish line with an 8-19 post-break record.
This time around, they’re hoping for a different story. But if that script is going to flip, it’s going to take a serious push - and most of it will fall squarely on the shoulders of Giannis Antetokounmpo.
A New Kind of Challenge for Giannis
In his third season, Giannis was still ascending - a raw but electric talent learning how to lead. Now, nearly a decade later, he’s a two-time MVP, an NBA champion, and the unquestioned face of the franchise. But the challenge in front of him now might be the steepest since those early years.
For much of the Giannis era, the Bucks have been a model of consistency. Nine straight winning seasons.
Nine straight playoff appearances. The goal wasn’t just to get in - it was to contend.
But this year, that margin for error is gone. They’re not chasing seeding; they’re chasing survival.
The Bucks currently sit a game and a half back of the 10th seed - the final Play-In spot - behind the Atlanta Hawks. It’s unfamiliar territory, and they’re trying to navigate it without the kind of supporting cast Giannis has grown used to leaning on.
Damian Lillard, Khris Middleton, Jrue Holiday - all have either moved on or missed significant time. And Giannis himself has already missed 22 games this season, the most of his career.
Signs of Life Before the Break
Still, the Bucks didn’t roll into the break quietly. They won five of their final six games, including impressive road upsets over Orlando and Oklahoma City - two teams that have been among the league’s toughest at home. That late surge didn’t just keep their season alive; it offered a glimpse of what this group could look like if the pieces start to click.
A big part of that recent momentum has come from two new faces: Ousmane Dieng, acquired via trade, and Cam Thomas, picked up off the buyout market. Neither is a household name - yet - but both have made an immediate impact.
Dieng has brought energy and size on the wing, while Thomas has flashed the scoring punch that made him a standout in Brooklyn. If they can sustain that level of play, Milwaukee’s rotation could look a lot more dangerous down the stretch.
The Health Factor
Of course, none of it matters if the team can’t stay healthy - and that’s been the Bucks’ Achilles heel. Kevin Porter Jr., who’s quietly been one of the team’s most productive players, has missed 24 games.
He leads the team in assists and steals, ranks second in scoring, and is third in rebounds. In the 15 games he’s shared the floor with Giannis, their lineups have posted a +4.9 box score rating - a clear sign of their potential when both are available.
But 15 games isn’t enough. Not when the margin for error is this thin. The Bucks don’t just need Giannis back - they need him back and surrounded by a healthy, functioning supporting cast.
What’s Next
Giannis is expected to return after the break, though likely on a minutes restriction. Even so, just having him back in the lineup changes the equation. He’s still one of the most dominant two-way players in the league - a walking 30-and-10 who can tilt the floor on both ends.
If the Bucks are going to claw their way into the Play-In - and maybe beyond - it starts with Giannis. But it won’t end there.
They’ll need Porter to stay on the court. They’ll need Dieng and Thomas to keep producing.
They’ll need role players to step up and fill the gaps left by injuries and inconsistency.
It’s not the position Milwaukee expected to be in at this point in the season. But the opportunity is still there. And if Giannis can lead this group out of the hole, it could end up being one of the more impressive chapters in his already storied career.
The Bucks are down, but they’re not out. Not yet.