The Bucks have a clear target this offseason in Peyton Watson, but the pitch comes with a gamble. For all of Watson’s value as a defender, he has not been asked to carry much of the offense in Denver over the last four years. Milwaukee, though, has one fresh example that should keep the belief alive: Nickeil Alexander-Walker.
Alexander-Walker just won Most Improved Player, and his path looks familiar. He spent years in Minnesota as mostly a defensive piece on a contender before landing in Atlanta and getting room to stretch his game.
Once that happened, the production jumped fast. He went from 9.4 points per game in 2024-25 to 20.8 in 2025-26 with the Hawks, and that is the kind of leap the Bucks are hoping Watson can make if they land him in a sign-and-trade.
There are reasons to think Watson might already be ahead of that curve. He averaged nearly 15 points per game last season and had a stretch of more than a month when he was putting up over 20 a night.
In that run, he wasn’t just scoring on easy looks, either. He created a lot of his own offense off the dribble, which is a real wrinkle for a player already known for his off-ball work.
The defensive foundation is what makes the bet easier to understand. During that stretch of over 20 points per game, Watson still posted 1.1 steals and 1.6 blocks per game.
That gives him a floor even if the offense never fully takes off. Like Alexander-Walker, he can still be a useful player if the scoring jump doesn’t come.
That’s also why the risk makes sense for Milwaukee. A lucrative deal would hit the Bucks’ cap space hard, but Watson is exactly the kind of young wing worth using that flexibility on. If he makes a similar leap in a new setting, he could quickly become one of the NBA’s top young two-way wings.
For now, the Bucks still have time to work out a deal with Watson and the Nuggets. Denver holds the leverage because of restricted free agency, but the Nuggets’ financial squeeze and the limits of the second apron leave them in a difficult spot. That could make Watson harder to keep.
If Milwaukee gets to the season without landing him, it should be treated as a miss for the front office. The Bucks have the pieces to make it happen, and they have enough reason to believe Watson can be more than what Denver asked him to be.
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