William Contreras didn’t just become the Brewers’ most active ABS challenger this season. He became one of the smartest ones when the games got biggest.
No catcher in the system’s inaugural season used the challenge system more than Contreras, who appealed 185 calls in the regular season. That led every catcher by 49 and dwarfed the field in a way that stands out even more when you zoom out: the gap between Contreras and second-place Tyler Stephenson was larger than the gap between Stephenson and 23rd-place Cal Raleigh. Statcast says Contreras challenged 43 more pitches than the average catcher would have on the same looks, and only Victor Caratini exceeded expected challenge volume.
Milwaukee made it easier for him to be aggressive. Brewers hitters challenged only 13% of possible overturns, the lowest rate by any offense, which left more of the burden on Contreras behind the plate.
When a catcher has both team challenges available, he can afford to press the issue. A miss doesn’t end the day for him.
There’s still another chance to turn a ball into a strike, and over time that extra swing at the margin pays off. Contreras finished with more fractions of a run gained than expected from challenges in every month except one.
But for much of the summer, the line between aggressive and reckless got thin. The league’s catcher challenge success rate sat at 58%, yet from June through August, Contreras managed only 49%.
In late June, he dropped eight straight challenges and 14 of 15. His August success rate slid to 46%.
A lot of catchers would have dialed back after that kind of stretch. Contreras didn’t.
He kept pushing, because that’s not the way he plays. He’s wired to go hard at everything.
The change wasn’t that he stopped challenging. It was that he started choosing better moments.
That shift made him one of the most valuable challengers in September and again in the postseason.
The numbers reflect the turnaround. In March and April, he was successful on 53% of his challenges and gained 0.1 runs above average.
In May, that jumped to 61% and 0.7. June went the other way at 48% and -0.2.
July steadied at 52% and 0.2, then August dipped again at 46% before September surged to 75% with 0.9 runs gained above average. In October, he stayed sharp at 60% with 0.5 runs above average.
Among catchers with at least five postseason overturn chances, Contreras and Liam Hicks are tied for the most net runs above average. He’s second to J.T. Realmuto in the percentage of possible overturns he’s challenged, and he’s already picked up two inning-ending strikeouts on challenges.
The big adjustment was simple: he tightened his zone. In August, Contreras challenged seven pitches that were more than an inch outside the strike zone.
In September, that number fell to one. In the postseason, it has dropped to zero.
Even with home-plate umpire Lance Barrett overseeing 12 challenged calls in Game 2 of the NLDS, Contreras stayed measured. He won three of four, and the only loss came on a first-pitch ball to Xander Bogaerts in the eighth inning that missed by half an inch.
That sharper judgment has carried over to his offense, too. Contreras has trimmed his chase rate from 28.3% in the regular season to 25.7% in October, and his walk rate has climbed from 9.5% to 14.3%.
The same knack for picking spots has made him the Brewers’ most dangerous hitter in the postseason. He leads the club with three home runs and a 212 wRC+ in October, and his bat has powered the playoff surge that sent Milwaukee to the World Series.
He has not suddenly become a perfect catcher. His framing and blocking remain weaknesses in October.
But the postseason has brought out a cleaner, more precise version of him. Contreras carried the Brewers to a pennant with his bat, and when it matters most, he’s started helping his pitchers on the edges, too.
Poor ABS use was one of Milwaukee’s few obvious flaws entering October, and Contreras cleaned up his part of it right when the Brewers needed it most.
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