The Milwaukee Brewers are staring down one of the biggest questions of their offseason: who’s going to lead their rotation when the 2026 season gets underway? That uncertainty has hovered over the team since their postseason exit, and it’s only grown louder with the ongoing trade chatter surrounding Freddy Peralta.
From the moment the Brewers were knocked out of the playoffs, Peralta's name has been circulating in trade rumors. And while that might make some fans uneasy, it’s not exactly shocking.
When you have a high-end starter on a team-friendly deal, the front office is going to listen. That’s just smart business - not necessarily a sign they’re eager to deal.
The path to a potential Peralta trade has been anything but linear. Early in the offseason, when Brandon Woodruff accepted the qualifying offer, it looked like Milwaukee might be running it back with much of the same core that took them to the NLCS. That suggested a vote of confidence in the current group - including Peralta at the top of the rotation.
But then came the financial questions. Reports surfaced about Milwaukee’s concerns over payroll, which had some wondering if a Peralta trade was inevitable. Still, those familiar with the Brewers’ approach know they rarely move their top arms before the final year of team control - especially when the salary hit is as manageable as Peralta’s $8 million.
What really shifted the conversation was the free agent market. As prices for top-tier starters spiked, the value of a cost-controlled ace like Peralta soared. Teams unwilling to pay the premium for a frontline free agent suddenly had another option: overpay in prospects or MLB-ready talent for a pitcher like Peralta, who brings top-of-the-rotation stuff without the massive financial commitment.
Then came a major twist.
After the Winter Meetings, the Baltimore Orioles - fresh off signing Pete Alonso to a five-year, $155 million deal - looked like the frontrunners to land Peralta. The logic was there. They had the need, the resources, and the recent history, having pulled off a similar move when they landed Corbin Burnes from Milwaukee in 2024.
But just as that connection was heating up, Baltimore pivoted.
On Friday, the Orioles struck a deal with the Rays for right-hander Shane Baz, sending a significant haul of prospects and a Competitive Balance Round A pick to Tampa Bay. That move likely takes Baltimore out of the running for Peralta - but it might have just made a trade more likely, not less.
Here’s why.
The Orioles gave up four prospects - all ranked in their system’s Top 30 - along with a valuable draft pick. Outfielder Slater de Brun and catcher Caden Bodine are both former first-rounders.
Right-hander Michael Forret turned heads with a strong season across High-A and Double-A, and outfielder Austin Overn brings elite speed and sneaky power (13 homers in 114 games last year). Add in the draft pick and accompanying bonus pool money, and Tampa Bay walked away with a strong return.
Now, Baz has upside - no question. But he’s also a bit of a question mark.
After missing nearly two full seasons recovering from Tommy John surgery, he returned in 2025 with a 4.87 ERA. His expected ERA (3.85) and Pitching+ score (107) paint a more optimistic picture, but he’s not exactly a sure-fire ace at this stage.
Peralta, on the other hand, is far more of a known commodity. He’s healthy, he’s proven, and he’s coming off a strong season. Sure, he’s only under team control for one more year, but that one year might be more valuable to a contender than three years of uncertainty with Baz.
So while Baltimore may be off the board, their trade for Baz could set the market for Peralta - and in a good way for Milwaukee.
If the Brewers are willing to lean into a prospect-heavy return, they could command a similar package. And if they prefer more immediate help - MLB-ready players who can contribute in 2026 - the return might look different, but the value could still be there.
Bottom line: the Baz trade didn’t close the door on a Peralta deal. If anything, it cracked it open wider.
It showed just how much teams are willing to pay for a cost-controlled starter. And for a Brewers front office that’s weighing its options, that’s a valuable data point.
So while the Orioles may no longer be a landing spot for Peralta, the ripple effects of Friday’s blockbuster could very well shape what happens next in Milwaukee. The market has spoken - and it’s saying Freddy Peralta is worth a lot.