Jackson Chourio’s 2026 season has been good enough to put him near the top of the Milwaukee Brewers’ offense, but the RBI total still stands out. He has 50 RBIs in just shy of 100 games, even though he sits second behind Jake Bauers in home runs, wRC+ and slugging percentage.
Part of that comes with the territory for a hitter who spends so much time near the top of the lineup and plays for a team that hasn’t always delivered much traffic behind him. But the more interesting issue is what happens when the Brewers actually do put runners on base.
The numbers show a clear drop once the situation changes. With the bases empty, Chourio has a .296 expected batting average, a .547 expected slugging percentage and a .388 expected wOBA.
Those figures slide to .205, .371 and .273 with runners on base, then sink again to .199, .289 and .247 with runners in scoring position. His walk rate edges up in those spots, from 8.70% to 8.10% to 10.90%, while his strikeout rate rises from 23.00% to 25.40% and 25.20%.
His hard-hit rate follows the same path downward, falling from 50.90% to 41.30% and then 38.70%.
That kind of production gap points to more than just bad luck. It suggests Chourio may be changing the way he attacks at-bats when RBI chances are there.
FanGraphs’ zone breakdown helps explain it. Across the board, he’s swinging more often at pitches in the heart of the plate, but he’s also getting more aggressive in the shadow zone and on chase pitches.
The shadow zone is where the problem really shows up. Pitchers are feeding him fewer pitches over the middle and more on the edges, and Chourio is biting on those offerings more often.
That can be a dangerous tradeoff. Those pitches can lead to weaker contact and quicker outs, especially early in counts, when a hitter like Chourio should be working toward something he can drive.
With the bases empty, he’s been better at waiting for that pitch. With runners in scoring position, he’s been giving that discipline away more often.
When the shadow zone is split further into inside and outside the ABS strike zone, the trend gets even sharper. It’s the outer shadow zone where Chourio’s swing rate jumps most dramatically, from 45% to about 60% with runners in scoring position.
That’s a big shift, and it lines up with the broader picture: fewer called strikes, more swinging strikes and fewer first-pitch strikes as the situation becomes more important. In other words, the pressure seems to be making him more aggressive.
None of this means Chourio suddenly stopped being a good hitter. He’s 22 years old, in his third major league season, and he has already shown he can handle the spotlight.
His 183 wRC+ in October is proof enough that the stage doesn’t scare him. But there’s a difference between performing in big moments and sticking to the same process when those moments pile up.
Right now, the numbers suggest he’s trying to do a little too much when RBI chances appear.
The encouraging part is that the answer is already in front of him. With the bases empty, Chourio’s approach works.
He’s patient, he waits for his pitch and he does damage when he gets it. The task now is simple to say and harder to pull off: carry that same discipline into the situations where the temptation to expand is at its highest.
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