Sunday’s NLDS slate gives bettors two appealing home run angles, even with only three starters officially announced. The San Diego Padres face the Milwaukee Brewers at 4 p.m.
EST, and the Los Angeles Dodgers meet the Atlanta Braves at 8 p.m. EST.
Atlanta still hasn’t named its starter, though Chris Sale could get the nod, which leaves a little more uncertainty than usual when it comes to projecting power.
The clearest swing I’m looking at is Shohei Ohtani. The Dodgers star missed time in September with a bicep injury, but he’s back and starting to find his timing again, with a hit in five of his last six games.
He also looks well-positioned to attack an Atlanta bullpen that has already been leaned on heavily this postseason. That unit has a 5.51 ERA in the playoffs and gave up multiple home runs in the wild card round against Philadelphia.
Ohtani has the kind of profile that plays in almost any matchup. Even if Sale gets the start, the lefty-lefty setup doesn’t scare him off much; he’s 3-for-15 against Sale with a double. With the Braves still sorting out the pitching plan, Ohtani feels like a live shot to homer for the first time since returning from the injured list.
The other name worth circling is Jackson Chourio. He went deep in Game 1 of this series and finished the regular season on a tear, batting .450 over the final week and .330 with five homers across his last 26 games, 24 of them starts. The Brewers outfielder hit 25 home runs in 127 games during the regular season, including 16 against right-handed pitching.
Sunday’s matchup could also line up well for Chourio because of the arm on the other side. Of all the starters expected to pitch, King may be the most homer-prone, giving up 20 long balls during the regular season while sitting in the 33rd percentile in expected ERA and the 50th percentile in expected BAA. Chourio hasn’t solved King yet, going 0-for-5 in his career against him, but the price on the Brewers slugger still looks attractive at +540 in Game 2.
Odds refresh periodically and are subject to change.
In Other News...
Brewers Hold On After Wild Ninth Inning Call Sparks Padres Fury
A bizarre ninth-inning moment at American Family Field became the defining flashpoint of Game 1 of the National League Division Series, when Ty France sent a fly ball high enough to strike a cable on the roof before Jackson Chourio made the catch for the Brewers. The umpires ruled it an out under the ballparks ground rules, deciding the ball had hit over fair territory, and the call immediately turned a tense postseason game into the kind of replay-worthy controversy that tends to linger long after the final pitch.
For Milwaukee, the ruling helped preserve a hard-fought win, but it also left the Padres simmering over how the final inning unfolded. Craig Stammen and Pat Murphy both addressed the play afterward, along with players involved, as the odd sequence became less about the mechanics of a ruling and more about the pressure-cooker reality of October baseball, where a single strange bounce can reshape a whole series opener. [Read more 🡒]
Jacob Misiorowski's Wild NLDS Start Left Brewers Fans With One Concern
Jacob Misiorowskis NLDS debut gave Brewers fans exactly the kind of electricity they have come to expect from the rookie right-hander, and then some. In Game 1 against the Padres, he reached a new velocity peak with a 104.8 mph pitch and kept the fastball coming, piling up 52 pitches at 100 mph or harder while working four innings and striking out six.
For Milwaukee, the appeal is obvious. Misiorowskis stuff can change a series in a hurry, and he left the opener having allowed two runs on four hits and a walk before the Brewers turned to the bullpen with the game still hanging in the balance. The only real question now is how that kind of effort shapes what comes next, because outings like that can be a weapon and a warning at the same time. [Read more 🡒]
Willson Contreras Just Changed An Early Brewers Playoff Storyline
The Brewers opened their NL Division Series with a tight 3-2 win over the Padres, and the biggest swing came from a familiar face who had been at the center of a late-season flashpoint. Willson Contreras delivered the go-ahead solo homer in the seventh inning after Jackson Chourio had already dragged Milwaukee back into the game with a tying two-run shot earlier, giving the Brewers the kind of timely power they have been chasing as October pressure ramps up.
Contreras performance carries extra weight because manager Pat Murphy benched him late in the regular season over a lack of hustle, a decision that had left his role under the microscope going into the postseason. Instead of letting that become the headline, Contreras answered in the first game that mattered most, giving Milwaukee an early playoff storyline built around response, not resentment, even if the full impact of that turnaround is still unfolding. [Read more 🡒]