Dave Roberts is sticking with Shohei Ohtani, and the Dodgers are betting their season on that choice.
Los Angeles heads into Game 3 of the NLCS trailing the Brewers 2-0, and Ohtani’s bat has been at the center of the problem. On Monday night, in a 7-4 loss in Game 2, he went 0-for-4 with two strikeouts, looking out of sync against mid-90s velocity and offering little resistance when Milwaukee mixed in breaking balls off the plate.
Logan Henderson beat him with three 94 mph fastballs in the first inning. Later, JoJo Romero finished him off with an 85 mph sweeper that never came close to the strike zone.
By the ninth, Ohtani’s best result was an 86.2 mph flyout to left.
That performance fit the larger picture, not just a bad night.
Ohtani has not homered since Aug. 18 at Coors Field. Over his last 24 games, he has hit .156/.269/.200 with 14 walks and 36 strikeouts, along with only three extra-base hits.
None of those extra-base hits has come in the postseason. His strikeout rate in that stretch sits at 34.0%, well above his career mark of 25.4%.
The injuries matter here, too. Knee and arm issues have already shut Ohtani down on the mound for the rest of the season, and they may be affecting him at the plate as well.
Sports Illustrated’s Tom Verducci noted that Ohtani hasn’t been engaging his lower half for weeks and is having trouble turning on pitches. He has not pulled a ball for an extra-base hit since Aug. 26, and Milwaukee has leaned into that weakness by challenging him with elevated fastballs and pitches breaking out of the zone.
That’s the hard part for the Dodgers: the version of Ohtani they’re getting now looks nothing like the player he was a year ago. In last year’s postseason, he was the NL’s best hitter, tied for the MLB lead with eight home runs, posted a 1.096 OPS and slugged .691. He also delivered one of the most memorable games in the Dodgers’ run, throwing six shutout innings and hitting three home runs against Milwaukee in Game 4 of the NLCS.
But Roberts and the Dodgers are not managing last October. They are down to their last two lives in this series.
That is why the idea of sitting Ohtani had real force. The most obvious alternative is rookie Josue De Paula, whose left-handed bat moved quickly through the system before his September arrival in the majors.
In 11 regular-season games, De Paula went 10-for-31 with one home run, three doubles and a triple, and he hit .323/.500/.581. In three postseason plate appearances, he is 0-for-1 with two walks.
He also brings numbers that stand out against the same pitching Ohtani has struggled with: a .328 xBA against fastballs during the regular season, a 11.9% strikeout rate and a 26.2% walk rate after debuting. At Double A, he struck out in 14.8% of his plate appearances and walked in 13.8% over 124 games.
Still, Roberts has decided to keep Ohtani in the lineup for Game 3. Asked about Ohtani’s 3-for-20 start to the postseason, Roberts said: “In this moment, we’re listening to Shohei and we’re supporting the crap out of him and that’s it. He could go out there and throw out 4…”
The Dodgers are choosing trust over change. With their season hanging in the balance, that may be the biggest gamble of all.
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