The Cubs are running out of runway in the NL Central, but Thursday’s series opener in Milwaukee still carries real weight for a different reason. Chicago’s path to the division crown is hanging by a thread after a split in the teams’ four-game set last week, and with the Brewers 7.0 games ahead and only 18 left for the Cubs, that door is basically cracked, not open.
The more immediate battle is the Wild Card chase, where the Cubs are locked in a tight race with the Phillies. Philadelphia has surged to 7-3 over its last 10 games, leaving Chicago with just a half-game cushion for the top spot. The Phillies also have their own difficult assignment, welcoming the Braves to Citizens Bank Park this afternoon.
At American Family Field, Craig Counsell is rolling out a lineup with a few notable twists against a left-handed starter. Pete Crow-Armstrong leads off in center field, followed by Seiya Suzuki at DH and Alex Bregman at third. From there, Tyrone Taylor moves into the cleanup spot, Nico Hoerner bats fifth, and Matt Shaw returns to the lineup in right field.
The full Cubs order: Pete Crow-Armstrong, CF; Seiya Suzuki, DH; Alex Bregman, 3B; Tyrone Taylor, LF; Nico Hoerner, SS; Matt Shaw, RF; Carson Kelly, C; BJ Murray Jr., 1B; Pedro Ramírez, 2B.
Taylor’s jump into the four-hole is the eye-catcher. He’s been scorching lately, hitting .486 over his last 15 games, and he finished the previous Brewers series with six hits and six RBIs. He’s also batting .326 against lefties this season, which explains why Chicago wants him in the middle of the order and getting regular chances.
Shaw is back after sitting four straight games, and the Cubs are keeping him in the mix against a lefty. He’ll patrol right field while Suzuki stays in the DH role.
The biggest change, though, is at first base. Michael Busch gets the day off, and BJ Murray Jr. takes over.
It’s only Murray’s second career start, and the first one also came against Milwaukee, when he started at DH last week. When the Cubs added Murray to the expanded roster, it looked like a move that could give Busch some extra rest, especially since Busch is most comfortable at third and first.
Murray’s arrival also reshuffles the bottom of the order. Carson Kelly drops to seventh, Murray hits eighth, and Pedro Ramírez rounds things out in the nine spot. Ramírez has only hit last in the lineup in nine games this season.
Milwaukee counters with Jackson Chourio in left, Brice Turang at second, William Contreras catching, and Andrew Vaughn batting cleanup at first base. Christian Yelich is the DH, Luis Lara is in right, Cooper Pratt is at short, Garrett Mitchell is in center, and Joey Ortiz handles third.
On the mound, Matthew Boyd gets the ball for Chicago after his last start came against these same Brewers. He worked 5.1 innings in that outing, giving up seven hits and three earned runs, which nudged his ERA back to 4.05 after a short stretch below 4.00.
Boyd is still the kind of starter the Cubs want in a game like this. He gives them steady command and the kind of off-speed mix that can matter against a Brewers lineup this dangerous.
Robert Gasser takes the ball for Milwaukee after allowing only two earned runs on three hits in his last appearances against the Cubs. He’s been tough on hard contact all season with a mix that’s difficult to pick up, leaning on low-90s fastballs and a sweeper that works down at the bottom of the zone.
The Cubs’ best path against Gasser is simple enough: make him work, get traffic on the bases, and push him out early. If Chicago can do that, the Brewers will have to lean on the bullpen sooner than they’d like in the first game of the series.
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What the Brewers have seen is a player whose offense still comes with familiar tradeoffs. Mitchell strikes out a lot, does not bring much power, and yet keeps finding ways to hold his own because of the amount of hard contact he produces. Even so, his place in the clubs postseason picture is far from settled, with outfield competition tightening at exactly the moment the Brewers would prefer to have their answers already in hand. [Read more 🡒]