The last stretch of this World Series breakdown turns on three very specific things: whether Bryan Baker can keep holding the line, whether the Brewers can find the right right-handed arm for the most awkward outs, and whether the mound at The Trop behaves the way Milwaukee needs it to.
Start with Baker, because the Rays are asking a lot of him. He’s been used heavily over the past two seasons, and the wear is showing in the radar gun.
His fastball was sitting around 96-97 MPH in the first half, then slipped to 95 in the second half. In the postseason, that drop has gotten more pronounced, with Baker sitting 94 a couple of times and dipping to 92-93 during the ALCS.
The results have still been there. Baker faced 23 batters, struck out six and allowed only three baserunners while helping seal the Rays’ pennant.
Even so, the warning signs are real. Some have noted that his changeup has also lost a little velocity, keeping the gap between the two pitches intact, but the bigger issue is simple: less speed makes it easier for hitters to square him up.
The damage hasn’t shown up yet, but the risk is growing. There’s also the matter of how much he’s been propped up by the defense behind him.
His strikeout and walk numbers have never quite matched the ERA and WHIP he posted, and the argument here is that he’s been helped more than most by the gloves behind him. That kind of margin can disappear fast when velocity starts to fade.
Then comes the bullpen puzzle after the obvious names. Aaron Ashby has been useful, but the Brewers’ best hitters, including one or two of their lefties, handle lefty sinkers fairly well, which makes his role in this series much narrower than it was against the Dodgers or Padres.
Trevor Megill and Abner Uribe should absorb heavier innings, especially if the series runs long. But at some point, Milwaukee is going to need a right-hander who isn’t a starter and isn’t Megill or Uribe to get through Yandy Díaz, Jonathan Aranda and Junior Caminero.
That’s where Antonio Senzatela comes in. Brandon Woodruff is mentioned as a possibility in one scenario, but it’s not the likely one.
The more realistic answer is Senzatela, even if the trust between him and Pat Murphy hasn’t fully taken shape the way it has with a classic high-leverage reliever. The fit may not be tidy, but the need is obvious.
Senzatela’s stuff has been better than the Brewers’ results with him, and with a little more help from the defense behind him, he might already be dominating. If the series asks for an unexpected answer, he’s the one who could provide it.
And then there’s the mound itself, which could end up deciding the whole thing. Freddy Peralta is lined up to start Game 3 in front of his adopted home crowd, away from whatever Brewers pressure might come with a start elsewhere. Jacob Misiorowski gets Game 5, and that means a first real look this month at how the opposing grounds crew has handled the mound for his unusual delivery and downhill move.
That’s the last thing worth watching because it may be the last thing left to matter. Misiorowski might need a few pitches to settle in, but the expectation here is that he’ll figure it out.
The bigger image is Megill, finishing things off on that same mound a couple of hours later, throwing the final pitch of the MLB season. It would be cleaner if Milwaukee could clinch its first World Series at Uecker Field, in front of 46,000 Wisconsin fans, with the old echoes hanging in the air.
But that’s not the prediction here. The belief is that the Brewers finish at The Trop in St.
Petersburg, with Misiorowski settling the mound and Megill bringing the whole thing home.
The pick is Brewers in five. The Rays are a very good team, and there’s room for the series to swing the other way.
Baker could keep riding out the danger. The mound could stay stubborn.
Baseball always leaves room for the unexpected. But this 2026 Brewers team just might be inevitable.
In Other News...
Brewers Are Betting Big On Jacob Misiorowski Fix In Game 1
Jacob Misiorowskis postseason has come with as much adjustment as adrenaline, and the Brewers used the off time before World Series Game 1 to address it. Pitching coach Chris Hook and coordinator Jim Henderson spent Misiorowskis 11-day reset working through the delivery issues that had started to chip away at the impact of his fastball, a pitch Milwaukee needs to be right if it wants him to look like the force it believes he can be.
Now the 23-year-old is lined up to take the ball in Game 1, which gives the Brewers a chance to start the series with one of their most electric arms on the mound. It also adds another layer to an already unusual postseason for Misiorowski, who is set to become the youngest pitcher to start three Game 1s in the same run, with Milwaukee clearly betting that the fixes will show up when the spotlight is brightest. [Read more 🡒]
Brandon Woodruffs Brewers Return Suddenly Comes With One Big Catch
Brandon Woodruffs path back from an anterior shoulder capsule injury has started to look real again, with the right-hander back to throwing bullpens and recently getting through his first live outing. For a Brewers club that has spent the season waiting on his return, the progress is meaningful enough to keep his name in the conversation as the postseason picture sharpens, even as the final decisions around the roster draw closer.
Matt Arnold sounded encouraged by what he has seen from Woodruff, but there is still a complication hanging over the Brewers World Series roster plans. League rules can affect whether an injured player can be swapped in if the injury is viewed as recurring or pre-existing, and with Milwaukee expected to announce its 26-man roster soon, Woodruffs status remains one of the more intriguing questions left to settle. [Read more 🡒]
Brewers World Series Menu Is Pure Wisconsin And Fans Will Love It
American Family Field is rolling out a championship menu that leans hard into Wisconsin comfort and ballpark indulgence, with new items like the Walk-Off Burger, Prime Rib, Beef Wellington and Brat Rangoons set to greet fans for the World Series. The spread was built to give the ballpark a distinctly local feel while offering plenty of choices for a big October crowd.
The details make the menu even more intriguing because the planning started long before the Brewers had any idea theyd be hosting this stage. There is also a special Klsch on tap at the stadium, adding another local touch to a setup that feels tailor-made for a postseason run, even if the full story of how it all came together is still waiting to be told. [Read more 🡒]