When the Brewers punched their ticket past the Dodgers on Thursday night, the American League race probably felt pretty far away.
It still will for a while. Milwaukee doesn’t open the World Series at American Family Field until next Friday, Oct. 23, and because the Brewers set a franchise record with 103 wins, they’ll have home-field advantage when the Fall Classic begins. For now, they get a full week to rest, reset and watch the Guardians and Rays sort out the other side of the bracket.
The quick answer to the question of who Milwaukee should want? It’s not a slam dunk, but Cleveland gets the slight edge.
The regular season doesn’t give much away. The Brewers went 2-1 against both possible opponents.
Against Cleveland, Milwaukee won the first two games on June 16-17 before rookie left-hander Parker Messick struck out nine over six innings in the finale. The Guardians were missing José Ramírez, Angel Martínez and Chase DeLauter in that series, and all three are back now.
Tampa Bay came to town March 30-April 1, dropped the opener and then lost 6-2 and 8-2. That was a different stretch of the season altogether, and the Rays were missing Freddy Peralta and catcher Liam Hicks because neither was with them yet.
Milwaukee’s offense is built on pressure, and that’s where the matchup gets interesting. The Brewers finished in the top five in doubles, runs, hits, walks, batting average and on-base percentage.
That kind of attack could run into more resistance against Tampa Bay. The Rays allowed the fewest walks in the Majors, 409, and ranked second in defensive runs saved at 87.
That’s a tough combination for a lineup that likes to work counts and keep traffic on the bases. Their top starters have also been rolling in October: Drew Rasmussen owns a 1.29 ERA through two postseason starts, and Peralta has given up one earned run in 10 2/3 innings, including six shutout frames in Game 2 of the ALCS.
Cleveland poses a different kind of problem. Gavin Williams has been dominant, piling up 33 strikeouts in 16 2/3 postseason innings.
The Guardians have a 2.54 ERA this October, just ahead of Tampa Bay’s 2.72. But the bigger regular-season gap still matters: Cleveland walked 530 hitters compared with Tampa Bay’s 409, which gives Milwaukee more reason to believe its patient offense can force mistakes.
The picture changes a bit when the other club has the ball. On paper, Cleveland looked like the easier lineup to face.
The Guardians posted the lowest OPS among postseason teams at .696 and scored the fewest runs, 678. Tampa Bay brought more punch over the long haul, with Junior Caminero’s 42 homers anchoring a group that tied for fifth in on-base percentage at .326.
But October has narrowed that gap. Through Thursday, Cleveland was averaging 4.25 runs per game with a .685 OPS, while Tampa Bay was sitting at 3.00 runs and a .563 OPS. The Guardians haven’t suddenly turned into a juggernaut, but they have been more productive than the Rays, whose offense managed just three hits in Game 3 of the ALCS.
That said, the larger body of work still points toward Cleveland as the more appealing matchup for Milwaukee. Right now, though, the way both teams are swinging makes that choice less straightforward than it looked a week ago.
Neither bullpen gives much comfort either. Tampa Bay’s Bryan Baker has converted all four of the Rays’ wins this postseason and hasn’t allowed a hit in four innings. Ian Seymour has done his part too, giving up one earned run in 6 1/3 innings.
Cleveland’s late-inning group is just as tough. Cade Smith has yielded two hits and one run while striking out 13 in nine October innings, and Hunter Gaddis has thrown six scoreless innings over seven appearances. Both bullpens can close a game fast.
That matters because the Brewers have already shown they can chip away late and come from behind this postseason. Against either opponent, getting to the bullpen with a lead would make life much easier.
There are some storylines here, too. Cleveland’s championship drought goes back to 1948. Tampa Bay, like Milwaukee, has never won a World Series.
The Rays also line up neatly with the Brewers in another way. Brewers president of baseball operations Matt Arnold worked in Tampa Bay’s front office alongside current Rays GM Erik Neander. Add Peralta facing his former team, and the connection is obvious.
So if Milwaukee gets to pick, Cleveland gets the edge - barely. The Rays were the more complete team over six months, but Cleveland has spent the last two weeks making the regular season feel a little less important.
The Brewers? They just knocked out the back-to-back champs and can wait while the AL finishes its business. Somebody remind Murph what time Friday’s game starts.
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