Kyle Harrison’s postseason case in Milwaukee has gone from obvious to uncertain in a hurry.
For much of the first half, the 25-year-old left-hander looked like the Brewers’ No. 2 starter behind Jacob Misiorowski, one of the best arms in baseball and a central piece of the rotation. Then came the forearm tightness that sent him to the IL from early July to early August, and the version of Harrison that returned on August 5 has not looked nearly as sharp. He has a 7.80 ERA in 10 appearances, including seven starts, since coming back.
The Brewers have already clinched a playoff spot and locked up a first-round bye, but their October pitching plan is still very much in flux. Harrison once looked like the easy answer for Game 2. Now the bigger question is whether he makes the postseason roster at all.
That concern spiked after his start against the Pittsburgh Pirates last Thursday, when Harrison lasted only 1.2 innings and was tagged for four earned runs on four hits. He walked two and hit two more. Manager Pat Murphy said the Brewers would keep giving him chances to show he belongs, but the outing made the outlook look pretty grim.
Then came a small but important turn. In Harrison’s two relief appearances since that rough night in Pittsburgh, he has flashed enough improvement to keep the conversation alive. The decision may not be settled until the very end.
The biggest reason for optimism is the fastball. Early in the season, Harrison was getting outstanding shape on his four-seamer after the Brewers raised his arm angle over the offseason.
That helped his spin efficiency and boosted the pitch’s riding action. His four-seam averaged just 12.4 inches of induced vertical break in 2025, but during the first half of 2026 he was regularly sitting in the 15-16 inch range.
That made the pitch tougher to square up and also helped his shallow breaking ball, which Statcast labels a “slurve,” play better.
As the arm fatigue showed up, that picture changed. Harrison’s arm angle dropped, the fastball lost some of its rise, and the slurve lost depth with it. Over the last month or so, his fastball had been living more in the 13-14 inch IVB range, and the gap between the heater and the breaker shrank enough to make both pitches easier to handle.
Lately, though, the fastball life has come back. Against the Baltimore Orioles on Sunday, Harrison averaged 15.2 inches of IVB on his four-seamer over a 20-pitch outing.
In his inning against the Phillies last night, that number climbed to 16.3 inches, his best single-outing average of the season. His four-seam velocity has also been back over his last four outings.
On that front, the Brewers have real reason to feel better.
But the results still weren’t there last night, and two issues stand out: location and the slider shape. Harrison’s fastball now looks closer to the pitch he had early in the year, but he isn’t getting it to the top of the zone the way he was before the All-Star Break. That spot is where the pitch does its best work, and his recent location plots don’t show the same precision.
The other problem is the breaking ball. The depth still hasn’t fully returned.
The RBI double Alec Bohm ripped into the left field corner last night came on a breaking pitch that was below the zone, but it only had -2 inches of IVB. Earlier this season, Harrison was getting as much as -6 or -7 inches of IVB on that pitch.
That difference mattered. A pitch like that would have been a much tougher swing earlier in the year.
So the Brewers have cleared one major hurdle with Harrison: the fastball shape and velocity are back. The remaining questions are the command at the top of the zone and the breaking ball’s depth. Those two things will likely decide whether he gets a spot on the postseason roster.
Milwaukee opens its first playoff game on October 3, which gives Harrison and the Brewers’ pitching staff 10 days to sort it out.
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