Eight players are now staring at the same offseason decision: take a one-year, $23.15 million qualifying offer or test the market.
Joel Sherman of The New York Post reported that the group includes Randy Arozarena of the Mariners, Jake Bauers of the Brewers, David Bednar of the Yankees, Ryan Jeffers of the Twins, Brandon Lowe of the Pirates, Adrián Morejón of the Padres, Trevor Rogers of the Orioles and Seiya Suzuki of the Cubs.
The qualifying offer system gives clubs a way to keep a pending free agent tethered to draft-pick compensation. A team can extend the one-year offer only if the player spent the full walk year with that club and has never received a qualifying offer before.
The figure is set by averaging the salaries of the 125 highest-paid players in the league. Players have until 3 pm Central on November 17 to accept or reject, and they can still talk with other teams before making that call.
If one of these players signs elsewhere, his former club gets draft-pick compensation. The new team, meanwhile, faces penalties that include draft-pick forfeiture and could also include losing international bonus pool space.
Most of this list was expected. MLBTR had previously pegged Rogers, Arozarena and Suzuki as locks, while Jeffers and Lowe were viewed as likely to get the offer, with the only hesitation tied to each club’s spending habits rather than the players themselves.
The two trickier cases were Bednar and Morejón. Both are impact arms, but relievers do not often land qualifying offers.
Bednar’s career has had its uneven stretches, though his recent work was strong enough to get him across the line. Morejón’s injury history made him a borderline call, but he has been dominant for three straight years.
He ended the season unavailable for San Diego’s final playoff games because of shoulder “stickiness,” so the Padres’ willingness to extend the offer may say something about how they view that issue.
It may also hint at the club’s financial posture under new ownership. San Diego’s payroll appeared to run into a ceiling in 2023, and after Peter Seidler died late that year, the Padres seemed to operate around financial limits in the following offseasons.
The Seidler family sold the team to José E. Feliciano and Kwanza Jones in August, making this the first offseason under the new regime.
Bauers stands out as the surprise of the group. MLBTR had labeled him a long shot in September, and that made sense given where he was not long ago.
He had bounced around with the Rays, Guardians, Mariners and Yankees before arriving in Milwaukee, and after the 2024 season his career line sat at .208/.302/.361. MLBTR contributor Matt Swartz projected him for a $2.3 million arbitration salary, but the Brewers instead put him on outright waivers and every other club passed.
He became a free agent.
At that point, Bauers told Curt Hogg of the Milwaukee Journal Sentinel that he was going to retire, while his wife planned to return to full-time teaching. Then she became pregnant, and Bauers decided to keep playing because they needed health insurance. He re-signed with the Brewers on a minor league deal, made the Opening Day roster and finished with a solid season, especially down the stretch.
Milwaukee liked what it saw enough to bring him back for 2026 on a $2.7 million deal to avoid arbitration. Bauers then exploded for 26 home runs, walked at a 16.3% clip and hit .266/.389/.484 for a 143 wRC+.
Only six qualified hitters finished with a better wRC+ this season. He also held his own against left-handed pitching, something he had never done before.
His postseason was uneven: he won NLCS MVP honors, then cooled off in the World Series.
Even with that kind of year, the Brewers’ decision to extend a qualifying offer is notable. The club has not been known as a big spender, and Bauers was not even on a major league deal two years ago.
Of the eight players, he looks like the one most likely to accept. He made just $2.7 million this year, so the QO would represent a massive jump.
Unless another team comes in with a strong multi-year offer, turning that down would be a tough sell.
There is also a path where everyone is fine with him taking it. Milwaukee is coming off a championship, may have some extra money to work with, and does not have glaring holes all over the roster. Bauers could handle first base for another year, giving the Brewers time to see whether someone like Andrew Fischer is ready to move up from the minors.
Still, the market should be there. Impact bats are scarce, and Bauers is one of them.
The question is whether a club will pay him on a meaningful multi-year deal and also give up at least one draft pick to do it. He has a couple of weeks to weigh that against the certainty of the qualifying offer.
As for the names left off the list, there were no major surprises. MLBTR had described Jazz Chisholm Jr. as a borderline case in September, but recent reporting said the Yankees planned to extend the offer to Bednar instead.
That works out well for Chisholm, since interested teams will not have to worry about qualifying-offer penalties. Ian Happ, Ty France and Michael Soroka are among the other players who benefit from not being attached to the QO.
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