The Brewers have spent all season building a pitching staff that can bend games to its will, and now the October puzzle is down to one of the trickiest questions on the roster: who starts Game 3?
Milwaukee’s first two answers are easy enough. Jacob Misiorowski will get Game 1 of the NLDS, and Logan Henderson is very likely to follow in Game 2. After that, the Brewers have choices, and not all of them feel equally clean.
Kyle Harrison once looked like the obvious name. For much of the first half, he was giving Milwaukee exactly what it wanted from a rotation piece, posting a 3.01 ERA while striking out more than five batters for every walk.
Even when he landed on the injured list in July, the expectation was that he’d return and hold a spot near the top of the rotation. Instead, the second half has gone in the wrong direction.
His ERA has jumped to 7.85 since the break, and that slump has pushed his playoff status into real doubt.
Dustin May brings a different kind of uncertainty. Milwaukee picked him up from the Cardinals at the trade deadline with JoJo Romero, hoping he’d add some stability.
The upside has been there at times - he’s delivered three quality starts since joining the Brewers - but the rough outings have been hard to ignore. He’s shown enough to stay in the conversation, but not enough to make the decision feel simple.
That’s why Robert Gasser has emerged as the name to watch. He’s a left-hander like Harrison, which could matter a little with Misiorowski and Henderson both righties in the first two games.
More importantly, Gasser is finishing September in strong form. He has allowed two or fewer earned runs in each of his last five starts, the best stretch of the three candidates.
There are still reasons for Milwaukee to be cautious. Only one of those five outings went longer than 5 1/3 innings, and he has also handed out a fair number of walks during that run.
So the Brewers can’t just assume they’re getting a long, clean start. But among the three, Gasser is the hottest arm right now.
If it were up to me, Gasser would get the nod. Harrison hasn’t done enough to claim it, and if Pat Murphy wants a lefty in Game 3, Gasser looks like the safer play.
May would be my choice for Game 4, though Murphy could also use him more as a bulk reliever than a traditional starter once the postseason begins. That kind of flexibility gives Milwaukee options beyond the first two games.
And whichever arm gets the assignment, the leash figures to be short. The Brewers have too many quality bullpen options to let a starter grind through trouble for too long.
Misiorowski and Henderson can set the tone, and then Milwaukee can lean on its relievers to finish the job. But someone still has to take the ball first in Game 3.
Right now, that someone should be Gasser.
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