The Brewers and Phillies meet on the final week of the regular season with plenty still hanging in the balance, even if Milwaukee’s place at the top of the standings is already secure. The Brewers arrive at 98-58 after 156 games, with six left to play, and this one could end up looking a lot like a National League Division Series preview.
Milwaukee’s biggest concern remains the starting rotation, and Dustin May gets the ball with a lot riding on his outing. Kyle Harrison has been scuffling, and May is trying to make his case for where he belongs once the games matter most.
As a Brewer, he carries a 5.40 ERA in eight starts, and he has failed to get through the fourth inning in two of his last three turns. Even so, there is at least one matchup edge in his favor: only two Phillies hitters have faced him, and those two have managed just one hit combined.
Philadelphia comes in at 86-70, still not officially in or out of the playoff field. The Phillies hold the third wild card spot, four games ahead of the Arizona Diamondbacks, but the recent stretch has been shaky.
They are 4-6 over their last 10 and are coming off a split with the New York Mets. Zach Wheeler is expected to provide the stabilizing force tonight, and he has been doing exactly that lately.
He has gone seven innings in each of his last two starts, including seven scoreless frames against the Washington Nationals, when he struck out five and allowed four hits.
The Phillies lineup has been one of the steadier groups in baseball, even if the numbers are a little more modest than some might expect. Only two hitters are batting above .270, and they have fewer double-digit home run bats than Milwaukee. The Brewers’ lineup card is set too, with Garrett Mitchell leading off and David Hamilton starting at third base and hitting ninth.
In Other News...
Brewers May Have A Pitching Edge Most Teams Still Ignore
The Brewers have built one of the more interesting pitching identities in the league by leaning into something many teams still talk around rather than fully embrace. William Contreras and Gary Snchez are among the most aggressive catchers when it comes to setting their targets right through the horizontal center of the strike zone, a setup that nudges pitchers toward throwing more strikes and keeps the game plan aimed at the heart of the zone.
It is not the conventional formula, especially for a staff that does not exactly dominate the walk column, but it has helped Milwaukee create an edge that shows up in the run prevention numbers. Layer in the teams heavy fastball usage and the result is a pitching approach that looks like a modern outlier, the kind analysts such as Doyoung-Tom Kim, Joshua Rodrigues and Lau Sze Yui have been able to spot in open-source models before it becomes obvious to everyone else. [Read more 🡒]
Brewers Just Gave Fans Another Reason To Laugh At The Doubters
The Brewers kept piling on proof that this run is no fluke, finishing off a sweep of the Orioles to reach a franchise-record 98 wins. It is the latest reminder that Milwaukee has spent the season doing what it has done for four straight years now, winning 90 or more games and taking the NL Central again while the rest of the sport keeps trying to talk itself into someone else.
Before the season, the numbers people were not nearly as bullish, with ESPN, Baseball Prospectus and FanGraphs all projecting a much quieter year and far dimmer playoff odds. Instead, the Brewers have turned those forecasts into another talking point for a fan base that has watched this team keep outperforming expectations, and there is still a little more left for them to chase. [Read more 🡒]
Brewers Get Encouraging Late Answers From One Playoff Push And Triple A
Late-season baseball gave the Brewers a little something to note on both levels of the farm system, even as the calendar ran out on Triple-A Nashvilles year. The Sounds closed with a series loss, but the final stretch still offered a useful look at the depth Milwaukee has been stockpiling, with individual performances and roster roles coming into focus as the season wound down.
At Double-A Biloxi, the tone was much brighter. The Shuckers not only locked up a playoff spot, they finished by sweeping a three-game set against the Blue Wahoos, the kind of finishing burst that keeps a development staff interested going into the next round. For a Brewers organization that always prizes whats coming next, the contrast between Nashvilles ending and Biloxis surge was a reminder that the pipeline still has some momentum. [Read more 🡒]