Milwaukee Brewers Once Again Playing the Underdog Role-And That Might Be Just How They Like It
The Milwaukee Brewers won 97 games last season. That’s not just good-it’s the best regular-season mark in franchise history.
And yet, as we roll into 2026, the national narrative still seems to treat them like a middle-of-the-pack team. The sportsbooks?
They’re not buying in either.
According to Vegas Insider, Milwaukee’s over/under win total for 2026 is set at 86.5. That’s not just a step back-it’s a full 10.5-game drop from what they actually accomplished last year.
FanDuel is even more skeptical, pegging them at 85.5 wins. Meanwhile, the Cubs-who finished behind Milwaukee last year-are sitting at 90.5 and 88.5 on those same books, respectively.
So what gives?
Let’s be clear: this isn’t about disrespect for the sake of it. The Cubs have had a busy offseason, adding Alex Bregman and Edward Cabrera while reshaping their bullpen through free agency.
That kind of splashy activity tends to move the needle-especially for a big-market club that draws more betting action. From an oddsmaker’s perspective, those inflated totals aren’t just projections-they’re business decisions.
More bets, more money, more movement.
Still, it’s hard to look at Milwaukee’s quiet but calculated offseason and justify an 11- or 12-win drop in expectations.
The Brewers are running it back with largely the same core that carried them to the top of the NL Central in 2025. They brought back Brandon Woodruff on a qualifying offer, keeping their top-tier rotation intact. They also made a smart, under-the-radar move by flipping Isaac Collins and Nick Mears into lefty Ángel Zerpa-a high-upside arm who could play a key role if he develops as hoped.
And let’s not forget the youth movement. Jackson Chourio, Sal Frelick, and Joey Ortiz all showed flashes of star potential last year. With another year of experience under their belts, there’s plenty of reason to believe the internal growth could offset any natural regression elsewhere on the roster.
Yes, the Brewers lost Danny Jansen to the Rangers. But while his 119 wRC+ was impressive, he only appeared in 25 games.
His 0.4 fWAR isn’t exactly irreplaceable. That’s not the kind of loss that should crater a team’s projected win total.
Now, would it be nice if GM Matt Arnold had the financial flexibility to make one more big move-maybe even one that doesn’t involve trading Freddy Peralta? Of course. But that’s not the reality right now, especially with lingering uncertainty around the team’s 2026 TV deal and the current payroll constraints.
Still, this is familiar territory for Milwaukee. The Brewers have made a habit of outperforming expectations, thriving in the underdog role while bigger-market teams get the headlines. They’ve built a culture around cohesion, development, and smart roster construction-and it’s worked.
So if Vegas wants to set the bar at 86.5 wins, fine. If the national media wants to keep overlooking them, that’s fine too. Because the Brewers have shown time and again that they don’t need the spotlight to shine.
The rest of the NL Central has been warned before. Disregard the Brewers at your own risk.