Kyle Harrison’s line score didn’t look like a disaster until the Cubs started teeing off on his fastball.
That’s the part that should worry the Brewers. Since coming back from a month on the injured list with left forearm tightness, Harrison had mostly looked like the same pitcher by the numbers: a 1.83 ERA, 3.61 xERA, 3.13 SIERA and a 31.7% strikeout rate entering Monday night against Chicago. On the surface, the results said he was fine.
The stuff said otherwise.
Before the injury, Harrison’s fastball was sitting at a career-best 95 mph. After the return, it was down to 93.7 mph.
At times, he was also dropping his arm slot, which took some of the life off the pitch. He managed to survive that dip for a while, helped by a run of mostly below-average opponents, but the warning signs were there: the pitch got more homer-prone, with Harrison allowing 1.83 home runs per nine in his first four starts back after a 1.08 rate before the injury.
Against the Cubs, those problems were impossible to ignore. Chicago, which leads baseball in runs scored and wRC+, whiffed just twice on 32 swings against Harrison’s fastball and launched four of its five homers off the heater.
Every one of those home run pitches came in under 95 mph, and three were under 94. Harrison was charged with a career-high nine earned runs in 3 ⅔ innings.
The velocity dip wasn’t the only thing working against him. Harrison and Pat Murphy said he was tipping pitches early by coming set with his hands in different positions depending on the pitch.
“When you know what’s coming, it’s a little bit easier to hit, I think,” Harrison said. “So it's on me [to address] during the week. I knew these guys are looking for any sign of edge that they can get, and they got a little bit of an edge on me, I think, in that first inning.”
His command didn’t help either. Three of the four fastball homers came on pitches over the middle of the plate.
Still, the bigger issue is that the fastball itself just isn’t the same pitch right now. Harrison’s heater has always played up because of its shape - the carry, the backspin, the late life.
On Monday, it averaged one less inch of induced vertical break than his season norm. Harrison said that difference matters.
“I don't think it's necessarily about the velo as much, it's about the shape,” Harrison said. “That's some of the frustrating stuff. I thought we were in a good spot last bullpen, was able to get back up to like 20 [induced vertical break], and then coming out today was more like 13.”
Murphy echoed that point.
“It's more about not only the [velocity] number, but if the ball's taking off the way it usually does at the top [of the zone], then that makes him really effective, because it looks like it's going to be here and then it takes off,” Murphy said. “When it's not doing that, it's more hittable.
We saw a little bit of that in spring training. We've seen it a few times.”
When Harrison does get the pitch up to 94 mph or better, it can still do damage. This season, fastballs at least 94 mph and located down the middle have produced a +2 run value, a .190 batting average and a 23.6% whiff rate. But once the fastball loses some of that carry, the margin for error gets thin fast.
That’s because Harrison’s arsenal is narrow. He’s basically a two-pitch starter: one fastball and one breaking ball.
His slider has sweeping, loopy movement and below-average spin, which makes it a tough pitch to lean on unless the fastball is carrying the whole mix. He does have a kick changeup, but he’s thrown it only 9% of the time this year and hasn’t commanded it well.
On Monday, as the Cubs kept barreling the fastball, he leaned more on the changeup, but only 21% of them found the strike zone.
The comparison to 2024 shows the problem clearly. That season, Harrison’s fastball averaged 92.6 mph and still held hitters to a .328 wOBA with a 23% whiff rate, but the breaking ball got hit much harder, posting a .347 wOBA. He finished that year with a 4.56 ERA, 4.33 FIP and 4.18 SIERA - solidly below average.
That’s not what a postseason rotation wants, and it’s a major shift from where things stood just weeks ago, when Jacob Misiorowski and Harrison looked like a dangerous 1-2 punch. Now the Brewers have to plan as if Harrison may be out of the picture entirely. Logan Henderson should start Game 2 instead, while Shane Drohan and Dustin May will be asked to handle more important innings, even though both have their own flaws.
Harrison insists the velocity will come back.
“I'm not giving up on the velo. I think it’ll still be there,” he said. “I'm feeling great physically, so just gotta keep going, keep grinding, put the head down.”
If that’s true, the Brewers still need an answer for the gap between where his fastball was and where it is now.
“His delivery might be a little bit jacked,” Murphy said. “I think it's in there, and I haven't lost trust, but I think we got to go back and look at the delivery and make sure his mechanics are solid.”
In Other News...
Brewers Quietly Added Infield Depth At The Right Time
The Brewers kept working the margins of the roster by bringing back veteran infielder Jonathan Ornelas on a minor league deal and sending him to Triple-A Nashville. It was a quick turn after Ornelas was designated for assignment and then elected free agency, but it gives Milwaukee a familiar depth piece who has spent time in the majors with multiple clubs and can move around the diamond.
Ornelas value is in that versatility, since he has handled several infield spots and even seen time in the outfield. For a Brewers club that tends to prize flexibility and options, getting him back into the system offers a low-risk layer of insurance as the season moves along and roster needs inevitably shift. [Read more 🡒]
Brewers Could Face A William Contreras Decision Fans Wont Ignore
Austin Wells has given the Yankees a little more at catcher, but not enough to quiet the idea that they could still look for a bigger upgrade this offseason. One name that keeps surfacing is William Contreras, the Brewers All-Star backstop, whose blend of offense and improved defense has made him one of the more appealing catchers on the market if Milwaukee decides to listen.
For Brewers fans, the conversation is less about what Contreras could bring elsewhere and more about whether the club would really entertain moving one of its most important players. He is entering the final year of his contract in 2027, which only adds to the sense that a difficult decision may be coming, and any possibility of a deal is the kind of storyline that would ripple well beyond Milwaukee if the Yankees or another contender get serious. [Read more 🡒]
Brewers Bullpen Gets A September Test As Playoff Push Begins
The Brewers enter September with the best record in Major League Baseball and a roster that is about to get a little more flexible, thanks to the expansion from 26 to 28 players. Milwaukee has already started shaping the bullpen for the stretch run by activating Abner Uribe and bringing in JoJo Romero, a move that adds another layer of depth as the games begin to matter more every night.
Romero, acquired from the St. Louis Cardinals, recently finished a rehab assignment and has joined the Brewers on their road trip, giving the club a fresh left-handed option for the late-season push. For a team trying to protect its position at the top while navigating the demands of September, every healthy arm matters, and Milwaukee is clearly getting a closer look at how its relief mix will hold up once the postseason chase tightens. [Read more 🡒]