The Brewers have a chance to make this week in Milwaukee matter in a hurry, but the path is a little messier than just showing up and beating the Cubs.
Chicago comes to American Family Field for three games beginning Sept. 7, and the standings make the stakes pretty clear: Milwaukee’s lead in the Central was eight games entering last week and has been cut to seven. That’s still a comfortable cushion, but a sweep by the Cubs would change the feel fast.
Even one Brewers win would keep things relatively calm, and a playoff spot could be clinched on the homestand - just not in the first two games against Chicago. The division, more likely than not, will have to wait until the Brewers’ final road trip.
The series opens Labor Day afternoon at 1:10 p.m. with Milwaukee left-hander Robert Gasser (4-5, 4.57) against Chicago left-hander Matthew Boyd (8-3, 4.05). On Sept. 8 at 6:40 p.m., Milwaukee right-hander Jacob Misiorowski (14-5, 1.97) goes against Chicago left-hander David Peterson (7-8, 5.39). The final game is also set for 6:40 p.m. on Sept. 8, with Milwaukee right-hander Logan Henderson (9-3, 2.48) facing Chicago right-hander Kevin Gausman (9-11, 4.38).
If those matchups feel familiar, they should. The Brewers just saw these pitchers, and the recent overlap is part of what makes this homestand feel so immediate.
Milwaukee already handled Boyd and Peterson on the road, getting three runs across against Boyd in 5⅓ innings and six off Peterson in 3⅔. Gausman is coming right back after his split-finger fastball helped stifle the Brewers in a 2-1 loss Thursday.
The one Cubs arm the Brewers won’t see again is Clay Holmes, who shut them down in a 17-3 blowout.
Milwaukee can also lock down the season tiebreaker against Chicago with one win this week. The Brewers are 6-4 against the Cubs and need seven wins in the 13-game season series to claim it. That matters because a win Monday would drop Milwaukee’s magic number from 12 to 9, since a tie would be enough once the tiebreaker is secured.
The bigger picture still points toward the postseason, and the Brewers could technically clinch a playoff berth during this series - but only if a lot breaks their way. Their magic number to reach the playoffs is seven, with Arizona and San Diego currently tied at 68 losses apiece in the final wild-card race.
Those two clubs still have a three-game series against each other later in September, which guarantees one of them will pick up at least two more losses. Because Milwaukee only needs to finish ahead of one of them, the magic number is effectively five right now.
There are a few routes to getting there. The cleanest one is a Brewers sweep of the Cubs, which would knock three off the number, paired with Arizona getting swept at Kansas City, which would remove the other three.
Another path would be Milwaukee winning all three while both San Diego and Arizona lose two of three; the Padres face Washington. A third scenario has Arizona and San Diego both getting swept while the Brewers win two of three.
In each case, the Brewers would be in position because one of those clubs is guaranteed to absorb enough losses down the stretch.
As for the division, a sweep would help a lot, taking care of half of the remaining 12 on the magic number tally. Milwaukee could still finish the job by Sunday, but that would require nearly everything to line up. The more realistic finish point is the Brewers’ upcoming three-city trip to Pittsburgh, Baltimore and Philadelphia.
Chicago arrives playing a little better than it was not long ago, even if the overall stretch still hasn’t been clean. The Cubs just won a series in Miami after splitting four games with Milwaukee at Wrigley Field, but before that they had dropped four of five series.
Their lone win over the White Sox took two walk-off victories. Milwaukee, meanwhile, has been 12-8 over its last 20 games, while Chicago is 9-11.
One of the biggest names in the matchup is Pete Crow-Armstrong, who hit his 40th home run on Sept. 6 and keeps piling up numbers that make him look like an NL MVP contender, especially with Shohei Ohtani ailing and seemingly unlikely to pitch the rest of the way. PCA has a .946 OPS, 33 stolen bases and 96 RBIs.
But against the Brewers, he has not looked like the same force. Crow-Armstrong’s homer Thursday off Logan Henderson was Chicago’s only extra-base hit against Milwaukee this year in 10 games.
He is batting 4 for 37 (.108) against the Brewers this season, and in his career he has a .164 batting average with a .620 OPS. Either Milwaukee has found a way to bother him, or he’s overdue for a breakthrough.
The Cubs’ bullpen has also drawn plenty of attention, and not all of it flattering. Since Aug.
20, Chicago’s relievers have posted a 5.16 ERA, though that still leaves five teams worse. Cincinnati, another team the Brewers just dealt with, has been at 5.12 over that stretch.
Since September began, the Cubs bullpen isn’t even in the bottom third in ERA. For the full season, Chicago’s 3.98 bullpen ERA ranks 12th in baseball.
And there’s one more odd wrinkle in that relief mix: Aaron Civale has been good out of the Cubs bullpen in longer relief.
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Brewers Rookie Fireballer Gets One Last Shot At The Cubs
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The most memorable version of Misiorowski against the Cubs came when he hit 105.5 mph on the radar gun, a fastball that tied for the third-fastest ever tracked by Statcast. He was knocked around more recently at Wrigley Field, though Milwaukee still finished the job, so this one feels like another test of how much the Cubs can adjust before the rookie fireballer gets one more shot at them. [Read more 🡒]
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Garrett Mitchell Has Forced A Brewers Question At The Worst Time
Garrett Mitchell has finally gotten the kind of extended big-league runway the Brewers long imagined for him, and it has come at a time when every at-bat seems to carry extra weight. After spending his previous four partial seasons bouncing in and out of the lineup, he has logged 464 plate appearances this year, giving Milwaukee a much clearer look at what he is right now, not just what he might become.
What the Brewers have seen is a player whose offense still comes with familiar tradeoffs. Mitchell strikes out a lot, does not bring much power, and yet keeps finding ways to hold his own because of the amount of hard contact he produces. Even so, his place in the clubs postseason picture is far from settled, with outfield competition tightening at exactly the moment the Brewers would prefer to have their answers already in hand. [Read more 🡒]