The Brewers may be on the verge of locking up the National League’s top seed, but the road behind them is still anything but settled.
Milwaukee sits one win away from clinching a better record than the NL East-leading Atlanta Braves, and with a franchise-record 98 victories already in the bank, Pat Murphy’s club is positioned to earn a first-round bye for the second straight year. The Brewers also own the tiebreaker over the NL West-leading Los Angeles Dodgers, who trail them by two games, so the No. 1 seed is very much within reach with six games left in the regular season.
What happens next in the NL Wild Card race could shape Milwaukee’s postseason path in a big way.
As of Monday, September 21, the Cubs and Padres are tied atop the Wild Card standings at 87-69, with Chicago holding the tiebreaker. The Phillies are right behind at 86-70 and have the tiebreaker over San Diego. Arizona, sitting at 82-74, is still alive too, though its path is far narrower.
The Diamondbacks are not mathematically out, and they still have a shot to crash the field with three games against the Rockies followed by three against the Padres. They have not officially clinched a tiebreaker over Philadelphia yet, since the season series ended split and Arizona still has six intradivision games left.
But the D-backs already own a 28-18 record against the NL West, while the Phillies finished 28-24 against the NL East, so if the tiebreaker becomes relevant, Arizona has the edge over Philadelphia. Of course, all of that only matters if the Diamondbacks keep winning.
For Milwaukee, though, the bigger issue is the three-team fight involving Chicago, San Diego, and Philadelphia. Only one of those clubs will host a Wild Card Series, and that matters because it can determine who the Brewers would see down the line.
The current setup would send the Phillies, as the No. 6 seed, to Atlanta to face the Braves in a best-of-three series. The winner would then move on to play the Dodgers in the NLDS.
On the other side, the Cubs would host the Padres in the No. 4 vs. No. 5 matchup, and the winner would advance to face the Brewers if Milwaukee finishes as the No. 1 seed.
That makes the final stretch especially interesting, because the remaining schedules are packed with pressure points.
Chicago finishes with three games against the Marlins and then three at Boston. San Diego has three at the Dodgers and then three at home against Arizona.
Philadelphia closes with three against Milwaukee and three against the Rays. Arizona, meanwhile, gets three at Colorado and then those three in San Diego.
The Cubs’ final opponent may be the softest of the bunch if Boston has little left to play for. The Padres have to go through the Dodgers before dealing with a Diamondbacks team that can still alter the bracket. The Phillies have the toughest-looking finish of all, with the Brewers and Rays standing in their way.
So while Milwaukee keeps its eyes on the No. 1 seed, it also has a hand in the chaos below it. The Brewers open a three-game series with Philadelphia tomorrow night, and that means the top team in the NL will be right in the middle of the race that could help define its postseason route.
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Brewers Are Balancing One Big October Risk With Jacob Misiorowski
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For Milwaukee, the challenge is less about wondering whether Misiorowski can handle the moment and more about deciding how to handle him at all heading into October. He leads the majors in ERA, strikeouts, WHIP and opponents batting average, which only sharpens the tension around keeping his arm in line for the stretch run while preserving the kind of impact that makes him one of the Brewers biggest October variables. [Read more 🡒]