Jacob Misiorowski’s postseason line still looks strong on paper, but the games have told a different story.
The Brewers’ ace has won both of his playoff starts, one against the San Diego Padres and one against the Los Angeles Dodgers, while posting a 3.24 ERA. Underneath that, the numbers remain eye-catching: a 1.90 FIP, a 54.5% groundball rate and a 29.7% strikeout rate.
But neither outing came easily. Misiorowski failed to get through five innings in either start, and the longer those games went, the more it looked like he was grinding through every frame.
That’s where the late-season wear and tear starts to matter.
During Game 1 of the NLCS, Misiorowski still averaged 100.6 mph on his fastball, which sounds like the same overpowering weapon that carried him through the regular season. Yet the rest of his stuff didn’t quite have the same bite.
Against the Dodgers, his fastball produced more than an inch less of induced vertical break than usual, tied to a drop in spin rate from his season average of 2635 rpm to 2550 rpm. His curveball also lost some sharpness, averaging two fewer inches of drop than it did over the full year.
When the ride on the fastball dips and the breaking stuff flattens out, hitters have a better chance to square him up. That showed up against Los Angeles, and it had already shown up against San Diego. Both teams swung and missed on less than 25% of their swings against him, a far cry from Misiorowski’s 99th percentile regular-season whiff rate of 37.3%.
The likely reason isn’t hard to find. Misiorowski logged 174⅔ innings in the regular season, blowing past his previous career high of 129⅓ from last year.
With his two playoff appearances, he has now moved beyond the 180-inning mark. For a pitcher who throws this hard, that’s a heavy load to carry, even if he’s shown uncommon durability along the way.
The Brewers don’t have much choice but to keep leaning on him. If they’re going to keep chasing their goal this year, they need Misiorowski at his best. He’s had plenty of rest between his two most recent outings, and Milwaukee can only hope that a more normal schedule helps him reset before his next postseason start.
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Pat Murphys fingerprints were all over it, from the lineup choices to how the pitching was managed once the game tightened. With the Dodgers now chasing from behind, the Brewers can point to a performance that looked equal parts execution and planning, and theyre carrying a real sense that their manager has pushed the right buttons at the right time. [Read more 🡒]