In a game that keeps getting more technical by the year, the Brewers are finding value in something almost disarmingly simple: put the glove in the middle and ask the pitcher to hit it.
That’s the basic takeaway from new work built off Doyoung-Tom Kim’s OpenCommand model, an open-source method for evaluating pitchers’ command that has already started generating fresh analysis across the game. Joshua Rodrigues of Baseball Prospectus dug into catcher targets and found that setting more central targets leads to more pitches in the zone. When he applied that lens to the league, the Brewers stood out immediately.
No team in baseball sets up in the middle of the plate more often than Milwaukee. Catchers William Contreras and Gary Sánchez are in that central lane over 80% of the time, essentially telling their pitchers to fill up the strike zone. And the pitchers are doing it.
There are some important wrinkles here. A catcher’s glove is not always a literal destination for the pitch.
Sometimes it’s a decoy, and sometimes it’s just the starting point before the ball’s movement takes over. The Brewers also throw more fastballs than any other team in the league, which naturally pairs with more centered targets, since fastballs are usually meant to live in the zone.
Then there’s the Jacob Misiorowski factor, as well as Trevor Megill, Abner Uribe, and the good version of Kyle Harrison: when you’ve got arms like that, there’s no need to get fancy. Just aim for the heart of the plate and let hitters deal with it.
Lau Sze Yui took Rodrigues’s finding a step further and tried to model the value of catcher targets. Milwaukee didn’t finish first there, but the club still came out clearly above average. That matters because Yui’s model applies one theoretical plan across all teams, and it can’t fully capture how the Brewers combine those target choices with their broader pitching approach.
The walk rate is part of that story. Milwaukee’s 8.7% walk rate is close to league average, which is notable for a team that leans so heavily on fastballs. Put those pieces together, and the picture gets clearer: the Brewers’ real command may not be elite, but their catcher targets and pitch selection help them get the most out of what they have.
Strip away the layers, and the club’s edge starts to look almost old-fashioned. Chris Hook, Jim Henderson and others are doing plenty of nuanced work behind the scenes, but the core idea is straightforward: establish the fastball, present a clean target, and execute. It’s a simple formula, but in Milwaukee it keeps paying off.
That’s the funny thing about modern baseball. The sport is packed with research, models and technology, yet some of the best gains still come from doing the basics better than everyone else. The Brewers seem to have turned that into a strength, and every new layer of analysis only keeps pointing back to the same place.
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Brewers Enter October With A Pitching Decision Finally Taking Shape
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The real challenge now is lining up the right arms for the NLDS, and the picture is finally starting to come into focus. Jacob Misiorowski, Logan Henderson and Dustin May are all expected to factor prominently, and Milwaukee has already adjusted its pitching plans with an eye toward postseason readiness, including scheduling starts for May and Henderson. The Brewers do not have to guess what they are, but they still have to decide how best to deploy it when the games matter most. [Read more 🡒]