The Cubs have 42 games left to close a four-game gap, and the path back to first place runs straight through three names: Kevin Gausman, Shota Imanaga, and Alex Bregman.
Chicago sits at 70-50 entering Wednesday, while Milwaukee is 74-46. That leaves plenty of calendar for the Cubs to catch the Brewers, but the margin for error is thin.
The two teams still have seven meetings left, including four at Wrigley Field from August 31 through September 3. Milwaukee leads the season series 4-2, so Chicago needs to win five of those seven games to take the head-to-head tiebreaker.
With 48 days left until the Wild Card Series begins in late September, the Cubs can lean on a projected easier schedule and a strong run differential. But the real swing factors are on the mound and in the middle of the order.
Gausman was brought in at the deadline to steady things, not to create new questions. He’s expected to make about eight starts, with the possibility of two coming against the Brewers.
On paper, his 6-10 record and 4.29 ERA don’t jump off the page. The deeper numbers tell a different story: 131 strikeouts, 37 walks, 134 1/3 innings, a 3.82 FIP, and a 3.53 xFIP.
The Cubs already got a glimpse of the version they need when he held the Royals to two runs, four hits, and one walk over seven innings in his debut.
That’s the standard Chicago has to chase. If Gausman is giving them six innings and keeping his ERA below 4.00, he helps shield a bullpen that has dealt with injuries and a heavy dose of late-game pressure. If the starts are short and the ball is leaving the yard, the Cubs end up burning too many middle innings and thinning out their relief options on the days that follow.
Imanaga has been the rotation’s volume arm, and the Cubs don’t have an easy way to replace what he provides. Through 137 1/3 innings, he owns a 3.74 ERA, a 1.10 WHIP, and 130 strikeouts. He came into Tuesday’s start with a 1.21 ERA over his previous five outings, which is exactly the kind of stretch Chicago needs alongside Gausman.
But the home runs have been the problem. Imanaga has allowed 28 of them, and that has dragged his FIP to 4.56 despite his command. Against the Nationals on Tuesday, that flaw showed up again: three homers, four runs, and 4 2/3 innings, with the bullpen covering 13 outs in an 8-6 win.
The Cubs do not need him to become homer-proof. They need him to keep the damage to solo shots, stay out of long innings, and get deeper into games more consistently.
That matters because Chicago’s 622 runs scored and plus-109 run differential say this is a team built to benefit from solid starting pitching. When Imanaga keeps the ball in check, the offense’s margin holds up.
When he doesn’t, one mistake can spill into several innings of trouble.
Bregman is the lineup piece with the clearest room to rise. Pete Crow-Armstrong and Seiya Suzuki have already done the heavy lifting as foundational hitters, but Bregman has been more ordinary overall, hitting .251/.341/.388 with a 105 wRC+. That has left the Cubs without the steady third force they were expecting.
The second half has offered a better look. Since the break, Bregman is batting .292/.358/.500 with an .858 OPS. He has also struck out just 16% of the time, and that kind of contact ability can keep innings alive and open up RBI chances behind Chicago’s top bats.
There’s still a limit to the upside. His 4.4% barrel rate and .311 expected wOBA do not point to a massive power explosion. What the Cubs need is a more complete version: selective, productive, and capable of adding enough doubles and occasional home run damage to punish pitchers for challenging him.
If Bregman delivers that, the lineup gets deeper and the burden on Crow-Armstrong and Suzuki eases. If he slips back to the .648 OPS he posted in June, opposing pitchers can work around Chicago’s best threats. In a race that may come down to a handful of tight games, what Bregman does with runners on base could matter just as much as the names above him in the order.
The Cubs have the Wild Card cushion, but that does nothing for the division chase. To catch Milwaukee, they need better starting pitching and steadier production across the lineup. If Gausman, Imanaga, and Bregman all hit the right notes - especially in those seven head-to-head games - Chicago has a real shot to erase the deficit and move into first.
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Sal Frelicks absence has added to the squeeze in the outfield, where the Brewers have had to manage without one of their more reliable regulars because of a right shoulder strain. The encouraging part for Milwaukee is that help should be coming, but for now the club is still operating in survival mode as it tries to keep its season on track through a roster that keeps getting thinner before it gets whole again. [Read more 🡒]