Even with the best record in Major League Baseball, the Milwaukee Brewers are still looking up at the Los Angeles Dodgers in the World Series market.
BetMGM lists the two-time defending champion Dodgers at +220, while the Brewers sit at +600. That puts Milwaukee around a 12% shot to win it all, a modest bump from last year’s roughly 9.4% entering the playoffs.
Anthony Castrovince of MLB.com said the Brewers’ number makes sense.
"These are actually higher odds than the Brewers had a year ago at this time and they are higher than any team not named the Dodgers. So it’s hard to argue the projections aren’t showing Milwaukee any love here.
The Brewers play smart baseball, with genuine starting depth, an elite bullpen and game management and a dynamic and athletic core that provides excellent defense and baserunning. Do you want to face Jacob Misiorowski twice in a short series?
The objectively correct answer is no.
"To put the Brewers’ odds any higher would be to ignore the reality that the postseason tends to reward teams who can hit the ball over the fence. That’s not the Brewers’ game.
They’re 30th in MLB in home runs. Doesn’t mean they can’t do it in the games that matter most, but there’s some healthy skepticism baked in here."
Castrovince was less convinced by the Dodgers’ price tag, though, calling their near-29% World Series probability too steep.
"(Shohei) Ohtani’s second-half slide and late-season IL placement compounds the potential for October offensive regression for a unit with a ton of miles on it," he wrote. "The Dodgers have also been navigating late-inning uncertainty associated with the injuries and performance struggles of star closer Edwin Díaz, who also won’t have a ton of innings to right himself after his return from a neck issue."
There’s also a straightforward case for the Brewers at +600. They’re the favorite to finish with the best record in baseball, and they’re 33-20 against teams currently in the playoffs.
Only two playoff clubs have a winning record against Milwaukee: the San Diego Padres at 4-2 and the Boston Red Sox at 2-1. The Brewers still have three games left with the Philadelphia Phillies.
With 10 days left in the season, the market snapshot around Milwaukee looks like this:
ESPN has the Dodgers at +195, the Brewers at +650 and the New York Yankees at +800. The other National League teams in the playoff picture are Atlanta Braves +1400, Philadelphia Phillies +1400, Chicago Cubs +1600 and San Diego Padres +3500.
For the National League pennant, BetMGM lists the Brewers at +310, behind the Dodgers at +125.
FanDuel is also expecting Milwaukee to keep playing into October, setting the Brewers at -130 to reach the NLCS.
The Brewers are just five wins from 100, and BetMGM has them as heavy favorites to hold onto the No. 1 seed in the National League at -375. The Dodgers are at +280.
And Jacob Misiorowski’s Cy Young outlook is looking overwhelming. BetMGM has him at -5000 for the National League’s top pitcher, with Atlanta’s Chris Sale next at about +2200.
In Other News...
Brewers Turn To One Overlooked Trade Piece For Bullpen Help
The Brewers bullpen shuffle has quickly moved on from the headline part of the trade and toward the quieter one. After sending outfield prospect Jayden Fielder to Houston in the deal for Lance McCullers Jr. and Colton Gordon, Milwaukee has turned to Gordon as the arm it can actually use right now, promoting the left-hander from Triple-A to the major league roster and sending Garrett Stallings back down.
For a staff that can never really have enough usable innings, Gordon is being asked to help fill a practical need rather than a splashy one. McCullers was designated for assignment, leaving the Brewers to lean on the pitcher who came over with less fanfare but now has a clearer path to immediate bullpen work in Milwaukee. [Read more 🡒]
Brewers Open A Bullpen Spot As Veteran Lefty Nears Uncertain Return
The Brewers cleared a bullpen opening by designating left-hander Rob Zastryzny for assignment, a roster move that underscores how tight the margins can get in late-season pitching decisions. Zastryzny has spent this season on the injured list with a trapezius strain and has not appeared in the majors in 2024, leaving Milwaukee to make a choice on a pitcher whose status has been uncertain for some time.
Because Zastryzny is out of options, the Brewers could not simply stash him back in the bullpen while they waited for more clarity on his return. Instead, they removed him from the roster, a sign the club is prioritizing immediate flexibility even as one veteran leftys path back to the active roster remains murky. [Read more 🡒]
Cristopher Sanchez Is At The Center Of A Heated Cy Young Debate
The National League Cy Young race has turned into one of those late-season arguments that can split even the most numbers-minded observers, and Jacob Misiorowski has found himself right in the middle of it for the Brewers. ESPN analyst Bradford Doolittles AXE metric has Philadelphias Cristopher Sanchez sitting atop the field, yet Doolittle himself leans toward Misiorowski when weighing the season as a whole.
For Milwaukee, it is the kind of debate worth tracking closely because it speaks to just how dominant Misiorowski has been in his first full run at this level. The statistical comparison with Sanchez has become the centerpiece of the conversation, but the bigger question is whether the Brewers right-hander has done enough beyond the model to make the award feel like his to lose. [Read more 🡒]