The Milwaukee Brewers have built a reputation for being one step ahead of MLB’s rule changes. When the league rolled out the pitch clock, widened the bases and added the three disengagement rule in 2023, Milwaukee responded by leaning into speed - and the result has been the most stolen bases in baseball over the last three seasons.
That kind of edge matters for a team that has to squeeze every advantage out of the game. The Brewers can’t operate like the sport’s big spenders, so they have to win in the margins: roster construction, game awareness and any new wrinkle they can control.
That’s why the ABS challenge system, introduced at the start of the 2026 season, looked like a natural fit. A disciplined lineup with strong baseball IQ should have been ready to attack it. Even if the Brewers weren’t expected to dominate the actual overturns, the assumption was that they’d at least be sharp about when to challenge and when to let it go.
Instead, they’ve stumbled badly.
With three weeks left before the postseason, Milwaukee’s ABS approach has become a problem. Entering play on September 9, the Brewers’ offense ranks fifth-worst in baseball in ABS challenge success rate at 44%.
Even more alarming, their challenge rate sits dead last at 3.0%, meaning they’re challenging less than anyone else in the league. Their expected challenge rate is 4.2%, which makes the gap between what they should be doing and what they actually are doing the biggest in baseball at -1.2%.
The misses haven’t just been about bad luck, either. The Brewers also aren’t getting much out of the challenges they do make. Of their 49 offensive challenge wins this season, only 13 erased a strikeout, and just six turned into a walk.
The catching group has added to the issue. Brewers catchers have a 54% success rate in the ABS system, which ranks eighth-worst in MLB. That matters because when the catching side burns through challenges, the offense is left with fewer chances later in games.
That showed up in Milwaukee’s win over the Cubs last night. William Contreras challenged the first pitch of an at-bat with one out in the second inning and came up short, leaving the Brewers with only one ABS challenge left.
Later, in the sixth inning, Luis Lara challenged a pitch that caught a lot of the zone even though there was one out and nobody on base. By the ninth, the Brewers could have used a challenge against Michael Conforto that would have flipped a walk into a strikeout and potentially altered the finish, but the earlier failed challenges had already left them without that option.
There’s some unavoidable randomness baked into the system, and not every challenge is created equal. But teams can still control the basic decision-making: when to challenge, when to wait and when to save it for a truly obvious miss.
For the Brewers, getting that part right needs to be a priority before October arrives. In the postseason, a shaky ABS plan is a risk they can’t afford.
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