The early days of the 2025-26 MLB offseason have been a win for American League powerhouses-and a bit of a headache for National League contenders trying to keep pace. While the hot stove is just starting to heat up, the biggest moves so far have mostly landed in the AL, shifting some serious talent out of the NL and potentially clearing a smoother path to October for some National League hopefuls.
Let’s start with the dominoes that have already fallen. Josh Naylor, arguably the biggest bat to sign so far this winter, is staying in the American League after re-upping with the Seattle Mariners.
Naylor, who was traded from Arizona to Seattle at last season’s deadline, gives the Mariners a middle-of-the-order presence they can build around. It’s a big win for Seattle-and a missed opportunity for NL teams looking to add pop without breaking the bank.
Then came the pitching shuffle. Sonny Gray, a proven veteran arm, was shipped from the St.
Louis Cardinals to the Boston Red Sox in a move that strengthens Boston’s rotation and further depletes an already-thin NL Central. Just before Thanksgiving, the Toronto Blue Jays made their own splash by locking in Dylan Cease on a reported seven-year, $210 million deal.
Cease, formerly of the Padres, gives the defending AL champs a frontline starter with electric stuff. And the Baltimore Orioles?
They grabbed Ryan Helsley, one of the most reliable closers in the National League over the past seven seasons, continuing their push to solidify the back end of their bullpen.
So while the American League is stacking up arms and adding firepower, the National League’s biggest swing so far belongs to the New York Mets.
Under new President of Baseball Operations David Stearns-who made his name building competitive, cost-efficient teams in Milwaukee-the Mets made a headline-grabbing move by trading outfielder Brandon Nimmo to the Texas Rangers in exchange for veteran second baseman Marcus Semien. On the surface, it’s a swap of two high-salary players.
But dig a little deeper, and it’s clear the Mets are thinking long-term. Semien may carry a higher salary in 2026, but his contract is shorter than Nimmo’s, giving the Mets more future payroll flexibility.
And that flexibility might be key. There’s already speculation that the Mets are clearing space for a run at Kyle Tucker, one of the premier free agents available this offseason.
Tucker would be a massive get for a team that underperformed in 2025 despite a sky-high payroll. With Pete Alonso hitting the market again and closer Edwin Díaz also seeking a new deal, Stearns and the Mets front office are facing a pivotal winter.
But one move they haven’t been able to pull off-at least not yet-involves starting pitcher Kodai Senga.
After a stellar debut season in 2023 that earned him All-Star honors, a top-10 finish in Cy Young voting, and runner-up in the NL Rookie of the Year race, Senga looked like a long-term fixture in the Mets’ rotation. But injuries derailed his 2024 campaign, and his 2025 season was marked by inconsistency. Now, with two years and $28 million remaining on his deal, Senga’s contract is more of a question mark than a bargain.
That’s why the Mets have reportedly been exploring trade options for the 33-year-old right-hander. The thinking is simple: move Senga, clear salary, and open up rotation spots for younger, cheaper arms.
And the Mets have a few intriguing ones. Nolan McLean, Brandon Sproat, and Jonah Tong all got their first taste of the big leagues in 2025 and showed enough to suggest they could be part of the rotation going forward.
For Stearns, who built elite rotations on a budget in Milwaukee, that kind of cost-controlled pitching depth is gold.
But there’s a catch. Senga holds a modified no-trade clause, and according to reports, he’s made it clear he prefers to stay in New York.
That clause, which was a full no-trade for the first three years of his deal, now allows him to block trades to 10 teams of his choosing. So while the Mets can still explore deals, their options are limited-and Senga’s desire to remain in Queens throws a wrench into their offseason plans.
Still, the Mets aren’t out of options. Holding onto Senga doesn’t necessarily prevent them from making a big splash in free agency. Owner Steve Cohen has never been shy about spending, and if the Mets decide to go all-in on Tucker, they’ll be in the mix-though a bidding war with the Dodgers or other deep-pocketed teams could complicate things.
For now, the Mets are in a bit of a holding pattern. They’ve made one bold move with the Nimmo-Semien trade, signaling a clear desire to reshape the roster. But to fully execute their vision, they’ll need to find a path forward with Senga-whether that means working out a trade he’ll approve or keeping him in the fold and hoping for a bounce-back season.
Either way, the Mets are one of the most intriguing teams to watch this winter. With Stearns calling the shots and Cohen ready to spend, don’t expect them to sit quietly while the American League continues to stockpile talent. The next few weeks could define the direction of this franchise-and whether 2026 is the year they finally turn all that potential into postseason success.