The Milwaukee Brewers have locked in deals with five of their six arbitration-eligible players this offseason - but the one name still hanging in the balance is a big one: William Contreras.
The two-time All-Star catcher and the Brewers didn’t come to terms before the January 8 deadline to exchange salary figures, setting the stage for a potential arbitration hearing. Contreras is seeking $9.9 million for the 2026 season, while the Brewers have countered at $8.55 million. That $1.35 million gap might not sound like a deal-breaker in the grand scheme of Major League payrolls, but in the arbitration world, that’s a sizable difference - and a signal that a hearing could very well be on the horizon.
Now, it’s worth noting that just because the two sides didn’t strike a deal before the deadline doesn’t mean a hearing is inevitable. They can continue negotiating right up until a hearing date, which would likely fall sometime in the first half of February - before pitchers and catchers officially report to Spring Training on February 12. But according to league insider Mark Feinsand, the expectation is that both sides are headed toward arbitration.
If that happens, it would mark the fourth arbitration hearing the Brewers have gone through since 2020 - a relatively rare occurrence for most clubs, but one Milwaukee has grown familiar with in recent years. Let’s take a closer look at the Brewers’ recent history with arbitration hearings and what lessons, if any, they might carry into the current situation with Contreras.
2023: Corbin Burnes - A Cy Young Winner, a Narrow Gap, and a Fallout
The most high-profile case in recent memory came just last year with ace Corbin Burnes. Coming off a dominant stretch that included a 2021 NL Cy Young Award and multiple All-Star nods, Burnes and the Brewers found themselves just $740,000 apart - he filed at $10.75 million, the team countered at $10.01 million.
You’d think that narrow margin would be easy to bridge. It wasn’t.
The two sides went to a hearing, and the Brewers came out on top. But the win came at a cost.
Burnes later spoke candidly about how the process strained his relationship with the organization, especially after hearing the arguments the team made to justify a lower salary. That’s part of the arbitration game - teams are forced to downplay a player’s value to support their case - but it can leave scars.
Burnes remained professional, but there was a noticeable shift in tone throughout the 2023 season. A year later, he was traded to the Orioles as he entered the final year of his contract.
Was the arbitration hearing the sole reason for the split? No.
But it certainly didn’t help.
Outcome: Brewers win - Burnes awarded $10.01 million
2022: Adrian Houser - A Strong Start That Didn’t Matter
Adrian Houser’s case was a strange one, largely because of timing. The 2021-22 offseason was disrupted by the MLB lockout, which delayed arbitration hearings until mid-May - well after the regular season had started.
By the time Houser and the Brewers went before a panel, he had already made seven starts in 2022 - and pitched well, posting a 3.22 ERA. But none of that mattered. Arbitration hearings are based on past performance, not what a player has done since the season began.
Houser’s camp argued for $3 million, the Brewers offered $2.425 million, and the team won. Despite his strong 2021 season - also featuring a 3.22 ERA over 26 starts - the arbitrators sided with the club.
The loss didn’t derail Houser’s career, but it was a bump in the road. His performance dipped in the second half of 2022 and into 2023.
Eventually, the Brewers traded him to the Mets, where he continued to struggle. But in 2025, Houser found new life in San Francisco, earning a two-year, $22 million deal with the Giants.
That $575,000 difference from 2022? It’s a footnote now.
Outcome: Brewers win - Houser awarded $2.425 million
2020: Josh Hader - A Role Change Sparked by Arbitration
Josh Hader’s arbitration hearing in 2020 was notable not just for the outcome, but for what came after.
At the time, Hader was one of the most dominant relievers in baseball, known for his ability to go multiple innings in high-leverage spots. But that versatility didn’t help him in arbitration. He filed for $6.4 million, the Brewers countered at $4.1 million, and the team won.
Hader, understandably frustrated that his unique role wasn’t rewarded, requested a shift to a more traditional one-inning closer role. The Brewers agreed, and from that point on, Hader’s usage changed - fewer multi-inning outings, more ninth-inning save opportunities.
It’s rare that a hearing affects how a player is used on the field, but Hader’s case was one of those exceptions. The arbitration process didn’t just shape his paycheck - it helped reshape his career path.
Outcome: Brewers win - Hader awarded $4.1 million
What It Means for Contreras
So here we are again. The Brewers and a key player - this time, a cornerstone catcher in William Contreras - are on opposite sides of the arbitration table. And while the numbers may not seem massive in the context of a full MLB payroll, the implications go beyond dollars.
Contreras is coming off a strong season and has quickly become one of the most important players on this Brewers roster. A hearing could test the relationship between player and team, just as it did with Burnes and Hader. That’s the risk of arbitration - it’s not just a financial negotiation; it’s a process that can get personal, fast.
Milwaukee has shown a willingness to go to hearings when they feel it’s necessary. They’ve also shown they can win those cases. But at what cost?
With a few weeks still left to negotiate, there’s time for both sides to find common ground. But if history is any indication, the Brewers won’t shy away from going the distance. And if it comes to that, the outcome could shape more than just William Contreras’ 2026 salary - it could shape the next chapter of his time in Milwaukee.