The Brewers are one win from the NLCS, and Tuesday night’s Game 3 has the kind of pitching puzzle Pat Murphy seems built to solve. Milwaukee entered the series with clear plans for Jacob Misiorowski and Logan Henderson in the first two games.
This one is different. The ball goes to right-hander Dustin May.
It’s a choice that raises eyebrows on paper. Since being acquired from St.
Louis at the trade deadline, May has put up a 5.65 ERA across 10 starts. But Murphy clearly has a blueprint in mind, and the question now is how he strings the rest of the staff together behind him.
The simplest version is also the most realistic one: May does enough to hand the game over to the Brewers’ bullpen without leaving a mess behind. In his two regular-season starts against San Diego, he worked deep into both games, but that probably won’t be the expectation here.
Milwaukee has already shown in this NLDS that it’s willing to lean on relief arms early and often. Misiorowski lasted just four innings in Game 1, and Henderson got through five innings on 72 pitches in Game 2.
That usage has kept the bullpen busy, but it hasn’t emptied the tank.
If May can deliver four steady innings, that may be the ideal launch point for Murphy. If Milwaukee builds an early cushion and May is dealing, letting him face the order twice makes sense. Otherwise, the safer move might be to pull him around 13 batters faced, before the Padres’ lineup flips from more right-handed to more left-handed on the second pass.
From there, the left-handed options become the bridge. Robert Gasser, Shane Drohan or Kyle Harrison could be next if May exits after three innings.
Gasser looked like a possible Game 3 starter before the assignment went to May, and he may now be lined up for Game 4 if the series continues. Still, if Tuesday turns into a tight game with a lead on the line, he could be the middle-inning connector.
Drohan or Harrison could also cover two or three innings if the matchups line up and Murphy prefers to keep Gasser available for Wednesday. The bigger goal is to avoid burning through the same high-leverage trio again.
Aaron Ashby, Abner Uribe and Trevor Megill all appeared in both of the first two games, so the Brewers would love to keep their workload trimmed here. At minimum, each would ideally be limited to one trip into the game.
Ashby, in particular, wouldn’t be asked to come in, get an out and then continue into the next frame.
That kind of sequencing would set Milwaukee up well. If May can cover three innings and one of the left-handed swingmen can cover another three, the Brewers can get deep into the night without overtaxing the bullpen.
The late innings bring another layer. If the game gets to the back end and Murphy has managed to preserve some arms, the question becomes who gets the final important outs before the ninth.
Antonio Senzatela “deserved better than he got in Game 1,” and the Brewers like how he matches up with some of the right-handed bats near the top of San Diego’s lineup. Chad Patrick is another possibility if Murphy wants to use a different look.
He’s been inconsistent and isn’t a perfect fit against the Padres’ best bats, but he can provide length, and that matters in a game where San Diego has been willing to pinch-hit aggressively to chase platoon edges.
If the Padres go from their left-handed bench options to their right-handed hitters against a southpaw in the middle innings, Patrick could be the answer when Milwaukee wants to counter with someone who can work through a settled lineup.
And if the Brewers reach the ninth with a lead, Trevor Megill is the obvious name. He may not pitch at all in Game 3, and he could even be used earlier depending on how the game unfolds.
Still, he’s the closer for a reason. He has already seen the top half of San Diego’s order in this series, so ideally Murphy would save him for a part of the lineup that hasn’t faced him since August or earlier.
Even so, if Milwaukee has a shot to end the series with three outs, Murphy won’t save the biggest moment for anyone else.
DL Hall has earned Murphy’s trust, and Megill, Uribe and Ashby are the arms most likely to finish it off. The Brewers are in position to sweep the Padres and move on to the NLCS, but getting there will depend on the staff doing exactly what it has done through the first two games: giving Murphy options, and enough of them.
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