SAN DIEGO -- Game 4 of the NLDS arrives with the Brewers still chasing something they have not found in a long time: a postseason road win.
Milwaukee’s last one came in Game 2 of the 2018 NLCS, when it beat Walker Buehler and the Dodgers. Since then, the Brewers have dropped 12 straight playoff games away from home, and now they head into Wednesday night with a chance to keep that streak from reaching 13. They’re not in full must-win mode yet, but the pressure is real after tying the Senators/Twins franchise mark for the longest postseason road skid.
And Buehler is the guy standing in the way.
The Padres turned to the nine-year veteran after emptying the tank to get to this point. Game 2 starter Michael King was used as the Game 3 closer and handled the final two innings on Tuesday, only two days after he pitched into the sixth inning on Sunday. Padres manager Craig Stammen put it this way: “The resilience we showed today, the stick-to-itiveness, the keep-bouncing-back, all the adjectives you can use for that,” Padres manager Craig Stammen said, “this team showed it all year.”
Buehler, who last appeared in the postseason when he closed out the 2024 World Series for the Dodgers, brings a lot of October mileage with him. He has made 18 career playoff starts and comes in two days after being activated from the paternity list.
San Diego went 10-3 in his second-half starts as he settled in as one of the steadiest arms in the rotation. He’s not overpowering the way he once was, but he still knows how to work a big stage.
The Brewers have not announced a starter yet. Manager Pat Murphy pointed to several multi-inning options after Tuesday’s game: left-handers Robert Gasser and Shane Drohan and right-hander Chad Patrick. All three started games during the regular season, and Kyle Harrison also started before losing his rotation spot late in the year.
Gasser looks like the purest starter of the group. He posted a 1.67 ERA over his final six outings, a stretch that started with 5 1/3 innings of emergency relief in New York on Aug. 26 after Dustin May was hit by a comebacker on the first pitch against the Mets.
The Brewers have used openers three times in last year’s postseason, and that remains on the table here because three of the first four hitters in the Padres’ usual lineup bat right-handed. Patrick would fit that setup particularly well.
If Milwaukee loses Game 4, Jacob Misiorowski would be lined up for Game 5 at home. The downside is obvious: he would then be unavailable until the middle games of the NLCS, if the Brewers get that far.
The numbers around this series give Milwaukee some hope. In best-of-five postseason series, teams that drop the first two games and then win Game 3 to avoid elimination have gone on to force a Game 5 in 18 of 39 cases, or 46 percent. Ten of those teams finished the comeback and won the series.
The lineups could shift again, especially on the Brewers’ side. Murphy has already rolled out three different lineups in three games, and he moved Brice Turang into the cleanup spot for Game 3 to make it harder for the Padres to pitch around Jackson Chourio.
Turang was 0-for-10 in the series and 2-for-40 over his previous 11 postseason games before singling in the seventh inning. With Buehler on the mound, Milwaukee could go back to the Game 2 look.
That would mean: 1.
Jackson Chourio, LF 2.
Brice Turang, 2B 3.
Jake Bauers, 1B 4.
William Contreras, C 5.
Garrett Mitchell, CF 6.
Christian Yelich, DH 7.
Sal Frelick, RF 8.
Cooper Pratt, SS 9.
David Hamilton, 3B
San Diego’s lineup is also in flux, but there’s one change that seems likely to stick. Jackson Merrill moved into the No. 2 spot before Game 3, and that could remain in place, especially if the Brewers start with a right-hander.
Beyond that, the Padres have questions at DH, catcher and whether Gavin Sheets is healthy. Still, they could simply run back the same group that worked in Game 3.
That alignment would be: 1.
Fernando Tatis Jr., RF 2.
Jackson Merrill, CF 3.
Manny Machado, 3B 4.
Ty France, 1B 5.
Ethan Salas, C 6.
Xander Bogaerts, SS 7.
Dustin Harris, LF 8.
Samad Taylor, DH 9.
Jake Cronenworth, 2B
The bullpen picture is just as unsettled.
For Milwaukee, there’s at least a path forward. Aaron Ashby and Trevor Megill are both rested after not pitching in Game 3, and Murphy said earlier in the series that Misiorowski could even be used for an inning in Game 4 rather than throw a between-starts bullpen session. The Brewers are keeping that option open depending on how the game develops before the late innings.
San Diego’s relief plan is harder to map. Mason Miller went on the paternity list before Game 3, and his availability for Game 4 is unclear.
Adrian Morejon, who would otherwise be the closer, is dealing with shoulder fatigue and is also uncertain. King covered the final two innings Tuesday, but the Padres likely won’t ask him to do that again after he worked five innings on Sunday in Milwaukee.
Bradgley Rodriguez, Yuki Matsui and Jason Adam all pitched Tuesday, and Stammen left open the possibility of leaning on Joe Musgrove. “He's going to have to be one of those guys,” Stammen said.
There’s also uncertainty around Sheets. He had been limited to DH and pinch-hitting work while managing a foot issue for much of the second half, then was scratched from Game 3 with a stiff neck.
The Padres said he was available off the bench, but his status for Game 4 is still unclear. Morejon remains just as uncertain.
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