The Rays’ path to a World Series upset, at least in Buster Olney’s view, runs straight through the starting rotation.
Tampa Bay and Milwaukee are set to meet in a Fall Classic that pairs two franchises chasing their first championship. The Brewers enter as the favorite, but Olney believes the Rays can flip the series if their starters keep the games on a tight leash and push deep into the later innings.
Speaking on “Just Baseball Media,” Olney pointed to the same kind of formula Milwaukee used against the Dodgers in the NLCS. The Brewers limited the workload of Los Angeles’ rotation and forced the Dodgers to lean on the bullpen early. Olney spelled it out this way:
“Because the Rays’ starting pitching got deep into games,” Olney said.
He also explained why the Dodgers never really got to fully unleash their top arms in that series:
“What the Brewers did in the National League Championship Series was to mitigate the strength of the Dodgers’ vaunted quartet in their rotation,” Olney said. “Between Tarik Skubal, [Yoshinobu] Yamamoto, Blake Snell and Tyler Glasnow, those four guys combined for 18 innings in that series, less than five innings.”
The game-by-game numbers backed up that point. Skubal worked five innings in Game 1, Yamamoto lasted 2.2 innings in Game 2, Snell went six in Game 3 and Glasnow covered 4.1 in Game 4.
For Tampa Bay, Olney says the blueprint is simple: make that same pressure work in reverse. If the Rays are going to beat Milwaukee, he thinks their starters have to keep the Brewers from turning the series into a bullpen battle.
“To me, if the Rays are going to have a chance, then [Drew] Rasmussen, Freddy Peralta, Griffin Jax, [Nick] Martinez, they have to consistently get that team into the sixth or even the seventh inning,” Olney said. “That is the path through which I think that they would have to go if they’re going to win this series.”
That idea lines up with what Tampa Bay has already shown this postseason. Rasmussen is 2-0 with a 1.29 ERA in three starts.
ALCS MVP Freddy Peralta is 2-0 with a 1.08 ERA in four appearances, including three starts. Martinez, who gets the ball in Game 1, is 1-0 with a 3.00 ERA in two starts.
Olney also sees a bullpen edge for Milwaukee. He said Tampa Bay’s relief corps is good, but not quite the overwhelming unit it has been at its best.
“In part because the soft underbelly of the Rays typically they have absolutely lights-out bullpen, not quite the case,” Olney said. “I think they have a good bullpen, but not totally dominant bullpen that the Brewers have.”
He added: “But if they get consistently see starters into the sixth or seventh inning, then we could be talking about a Rays upset.”
That makes Game 1 especially important, with Martinez taking the mound first as Tampa Bay tries to set the tone against the team that finished with the best regular-season record and swept the Dodgers to get here.
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