The Milwaukee Brewers head into Saturday’s National League Division Series against the San Diego Padres as the favorites, and for good reason. They won 103 games, own home-field advantage and will send Jacob Misiorowski and Logan Henderson to the mound in Games 1 and 2, giving them two of the best overall pitchers in the National League to open the series.
But if Milwaukee’s postseason ends earlier than expected, the culprit is easy to spot: not enough thump in the middle of the lineup.
That has been the Brewers’ issue all year, and the numbers back it up. They finished the regular season tied for 28th in the league with 154 home runs in 162 games.
San Diego, by comparison, landed tied for 14th with 183 homers. The Padres also closed the season hot at the plate, tying for sixth in the league in September with 33 home runs in 24 games.
Milwaukee hit 27 in that same stretch, ranking 17th.
That gap matters even more in October, when every pitch and every at-bat carries extra weight. One swing can flip a game, and one big inning can tilt a series.
San Diego already showed that kind of damage in the wild-card round, when it hit four home runs in a two-game sweep of the Chicago Cubs. That total is tied with the New York Yankees and the Houston Astros for the most in the playoffs so far.
The difference is that the Yankees moved on and the Astros did not. Houston’s issue all season was clear: the offense was good, but the pitching was a mess.
San Diego doesn’t have that problem. The Padres can hit for power and bring elite pitching to the table.
That combination is dangerous. Milwaukee, meanwhile, can outpitch just about anybody, but it doesn’t have much game-changing pop.
So yes, the Brewers are the better team on paper and should be treated like the favorite. But if this series goes sideways for them, the reason will likely be the same one that has shadowed them all season: too little power when it matters most.
In Other News...
CC Sabathias World Series Pick Gave Brewers Fans A Strange Laugh
CC Sabathias latest studio moment gave Brewers fans an odd little jolt, even if it was more amusing than alarming. Working as an analyst for NBC Sports, the former Milwaukee left-hander picked the New York Yankees to beat the Brewers in the 2027 World Series, a prediction that naturally landed with a little extra flavor coming from someone who once wore both uniforms.
Sabathia said he was trying to get his two former teams to the Fall Classic, but the explanation carried an awkward omission: the Cleveland Guardians, where his pro career began, were left out of the picture. Cleveland remains active in the postseason conversation, and Sabathia has long spoken fondly about his formative years there, which made the snub feel even stranger for anyone following along. [Read more 🡒]
Brewers Draw A Padres Problem Fans Wont Love In The NLDS
The Padres come into the NLDS with a very different feel than the club that stumbled out of the gate earlier this season. They closed the regular season on a strong note, then carried that momentum into the postseason by sweeping the Cubs in the Wild Card Series, setting up a matchup with Milwaukee that has a little more danger in it than the Brewers probably wanted.
Fernando Tatis Jr. is a big reason San Diego no longer looks like an easy out. After a rough opening stretch, he turned things around after May 17 and became one of the driving forces behind the offense, launching 25 homers over the final two-thirds of the season. For a Brewers team that has spent the year trying to keep tabs on every edge in October, that kind of late surge is the sort of problem that can change a series fast. [Read more 🡒]
Brewers Face A Tough NLDS Test After Padres' Surprise Decision
The Brewers are now staring at a playoff matchup that got a little more interesting after San Diego finished off a sweep of the Cubs in the wild-card round. Milwaukees next test arrives in the National League Division Series, where the Padres have already tipped their hand on Game 1 by going with left-hander Robbie Ray to face Brewers right-hander Jacob Misiorowski, one of the seasons leading Cy Young candidates.
The opener is set for Oct. 3 on FOX Sports 1, and the pitching choice gives the series an immediate edge. Milwaukee has spent the year building around Misiorowskis rise, and now the Brewers will be asked to open a five-game series against a Padres club that comes in with momentum and a clear plan for the first night. [Read more 🡒]