The Phillies are closing in on the postseason, but the biggest question hanging over October isn’t about the lineup or the bullpen. It’s about Jesus Luzardo.
Philadelphia’s magic number to clinch an MLB playoff berth sits at two with four games left, including one against the Milwaukee Brewers and three against the Tampa Bay Rays. A loss to the Arizona Diamondbacks or San Diego Padres would drop that number to just one. So the spot is not officially secured yet, but the path there is clearly opening up.
If the Phillies do punch their ticket, one rival executive believes their ceiling depends heavily on Luzardo. ESPN’s Alden Gonzalez, writing with that executive’s view in mind, made the case that the left-hander is the arm that can reshape the whole October picture.
"Still, it's hard to dismiss the Luzardo factor in all this," Gonzalez writes. "He changes everything.
'If he's healthy,' a rival front office executive said, 'they're my answer.' If not, he added, the Brewers are the better, more well-rounded team.
Luzardo is that important."
That comment came in response to a question about which teams insiders believe could be the most dangerous this October.
The reasoning is easy to follow. With Luzardo joining Cristopher Sanchez, Zack Wheeler, a resurgent Aaron Nola, and a bouncing-back Andrew Painter, Philadelphia suddenly has a rotation with real bite. That kind of group can carry a team in the postseason, especially when the offense is uneven and the bullpen has questions beyond Jhoan Duran and Alex McFarlane lately.
The Phillies may not have a perfectly balanced roster, but a healthy rotation gives them a different kind of power. Gonzalez’s point is blunt: when Luzardo is available, the entire structure changes.
A fully healthy staff could line up with any rotation in baseball and maybe outdo every one of them, even the Los Angeles Dodgers. Without Luzardo, the Phillies still look solid, but their margin for error shrinks and their overall upside takes a hit.
That’s why the shoulder inflammation matters so much. Luzardo’s status could end up deciding how dangerous this team really is in October. As Gonzalez put it, "He changes everything."
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