The Brewers are one win away. The Padres are staring straight at the edge.
That’s the shape of Game 3 in San Diego on Tuesday, with Milwaukee carrying a 2-0 lead into the National League Division Series showdown and San Diego needing to find a way to stop the slide. The Brewers have already done the hard part by coming from behind in both games, and now they get the chance to finish the job on the road. For the Padres, the math is simple and brutal.
“Win-or-go-home games from here on out, so yeah, we have no choice,” Padres second baseman Jake Cronenworth said.
History is not exactly on San Diego’s side. In best-of-five postseason series, teams that grab the first two games have advanced 83 of 93 times, which is 89 percent.
In Division Series play under the current 2-2-1 format, teams that take the first two at home have gone on to win 33 of 36 times, or 92 percent. The last club to dig out of an 0-2 hole in a best-of-five came in the 2017 ALDS, when the Yankees rallied after dropping the first two at Cleveland.
Milwaukee, though, has made a habit of turning games around all year. The Brewers won 42 games in comeback fashion during the regular season, tied for fifth most in MLB, and they’ve already added two more in this postseason. They’re looking for one more.
“We know what our strengths are and we know how to support each other,” Game 2 hero Jackson Chourio said via an interpreter. “So I think everyone's rooting for each other in there. Everyone's supporting each other and we know how to win.”
First pitch is set for 8:30 p.m. CT/6:30 p.m. PT, with the game airing nationally on FS1, FOX Deportes and FOX ONE.
Milwaukee will send out Quinn Priester, who the club picked up at the Trade Deadline, to start. He opened his Brewers run with three earned runs allowed over 13 innings in his first two starts, then stumbled to a 1-2 record and a 7.61 ERA over his final eight outings.
At one point, he summed up the frustration with, “It sucks to be sucking right now.” Still, the Brewers are counting on his postseason experience and his success against San Diego - a 1.23 ERA in three starts this season for the Cardinals and Brewers - to help him reset at the biggest possible moment.
San Diego counters with Nick Pivetta, who is 3-2 with a 2.86 ERA. He missed almost five months with a flexor strain in his right elbow, but since returning in early September he has been excellent over five starts.
His Game 2 Wild Card Series outing is tough to read, since he lasted just 3 1/3 innings and gave up one run while the Padres were working with a fresh bullpen and pushing for a clinch. He did not face Milwaukee this season, and his career 8.76 ERA against the Brewers is skewed by one rough outing as a rookie with the Phillies in 2017.
The Brewers’ lineup will start with Jackson Chourio in left, followed by Brice Turang, Jake Bauers, William Contreras, Garrett Mitchell, Christian Yelich, Sal Frelick, Cooper Pratt and David Hamilton. On the other side, rookie Ethan Salas is expected to catch Pivetta after working with him extensively late in the year, including a couple of rehab outings when Salas was still at Triple-A El Paso.
The biggest lineup question for San Diego is designated hitter, where Gavin Sheets looks like the most likely answer. The Padres are set to go with Fernando Tatis Jr., Dustin Harris, Manny Machado, Ty France, Jackson Merrill, Sheets, Xander Bogaerts, Salas and Cronenworth.
Both bullpens should be in position to matter early and often. Milwaukee’s extra starters on the NLDS roster - Robert Gasser, Shane Drohan and Kyle Harrison - could be called on if Priester has a short leash, and the off day gives Trevor Megill, Abner Uribe and Aaron Ashby a chance to recharge. Those three have all thrown scoreless innings in each of the first two games, with their work covering multiple “ups,” and Brewers relievers have combined for nine scoreless innings in the series.
San Diego also gets a reset. Mason Miller remains the late-inning weapon, with Adrian Morejon in front of him, while right-handers Bradgley Rodriguez and Jason Adam are available earlier. Left-hander Yuki Matsui is there too if the matchup calls for it.
As for the injury picture, the Brewers were concerned about Joey Ortiz’s abdominal, groin and right knee issues entering the series, but he ran normally in Game 1. He sat out Game 2, though that was viewed as matchup-related.
The Padres still have to deal with the absence of Jeremiah Estrada, who is out with a right shoulder impingement. On the flip side, Joe Musgrove’s return after nearly two years away because of Tommy John surgery gives them a boost. Offensively, they’re in decent shape overall, with Sheets and Miguel Andujar both back from injuries, though Sheets remains limited to DH and pinch-hitting because of a left foot issue that has bothered him much of the second half.
Chourio has been the Brewers’ hottest bat in the series, posting a .958 OPS through the first two games after back-to-back multi-RBI performances. Sunday was his fifth multi-RBI playoff game already, and his 15 career postseason RBIs trail only Ryan Braun’s 16 in Brewers franchise history. Turang, meanwhile, is still looking for his first hit in the series and is 0-for-7 so far.
In Other News...
Brewers Fans Know Front Row Amy But Not The Full Story
If you spend enough time around American Family Field, you learn to look for Front Row Amy. The Brewers best-known super fan has become a fixture behind home plate, usually right in Row 1, seat 5 of section 117, where she shows up game after game with a scorebook in hand and a routine that has made her part of the ballpark backdrop.
What some fans may not know is that Front Row Amy is Amy Williams, and her regular presence dates back to 2007. She often attends alone, but her profile has grown far beyond a familiar face in the lower bowl, even earning her a custom bobblehead from the National Bobblehead Hall of Fame. [Read more 🡒]
Willson Contreras Just Changed An Early Brewers Playoff Storyline
The Brewers opened their NL Division Series with a tight 3-2 win over the Padres, and the game quickly turned into an early reminder of how thin October margins can be. Jackson Chourio kept Milwaukee alive with a tying two-run homer earlier in the night, then Willson Contreras delivered the swing that put the Brewers ahead in the seventh inning and gave the home crowd a jolt at the right time.
It was a notable response from Contreras after Pat Murphy benched him late in the regular season for lack of hustle, a move that could have lingered into the postseason conversation. Instead, Contreras has answered in a way Milwaukee needed, and his performance has already shifted one of the first big Brewers playoff storylines before the series has really settled in. [Read more 🡒]
Brewers Just Showed How Theyll Handle Their First Road Playoff Test
When the Brewers head to San Diego for Game 3 of the National League Division Series, they will do so with Pat Murphy leaning on experience over novelty on the mound. Murphy announced that right-hander Dustin May will start, a choice that says plenty about how Milwaukee plans to navigate its first true road test of October, where every inning tends to feel heavier and every mistake travels farther.
May got the nod over rookie Robert Gasser, with the Brewers valuing his postseason background and his track record at Petco Park. He has already pitched in nine playoff games and owns a favorable career record against the Padres, including a recent seven-inning outing in San Diego, the kind of resume that can make a manager comfortable when the series shifts and the margin for error shrinks. [Read more 🡒]