Brandon Sproat keeps giving the Brewers the same frustrating kind of start: enough flashes to make you think something is there, followed by enough trouble to keep the whole outing from ever really taking off.
Monday night in San Francisco was a perfect example. Sproat worked six innings, allowed three runs, and technically qualified as a quality start.
It was only the fourth time this season he has recorded at least 18 outs, and by the numbers it was one of his five or six best outings of the year. Even so, he struck out just five and walked three, and the Brewers fell 3-0.
The bigger issue is how the starts unfold. Sproat has consistently said he doesn’t feel much extra adrenaline early, but his fastball tells a different story.
He comes out throwing hard, then the velocity fades as the game goes on. On Monday, his four-seam fastball averaged 97.0 MPH in the first inning, then dropped to 94.2 in the fifth and 94.4 in the sixth.
That pattern has shown up all year. His first-inning heater sits at 97.6 MPH on average, which ranks in the 94th percentile among starters.
By the fifth inning, it falls to 95.3, outside the top quartile.
That decline matters because Sproat is already working too hard to get through lineups. He doesn’t get hitters to chase out of the zone very often, and he isn’t missing enough bats when they do swing.
The source material points to a rare group of pitchers with at least 80th-percentile fastball velocity but average-or-worse whiff rates and chase rates at or below the 20th percentile. Three of the four pitchers in that group are relievers.
Sproat does have the raw stuff to dream on. His sweeper, curveball and slider all grade as above-average based on their raw characteristics. But the results still aren’t matching the arsenal, because he isn’t forcing poor swing decisions or stacking up strikeouts the way a hard thrower with those pitches should.
That’s why the Brewers should make a change now. Long term, Sproat still has a chance to be part of the rotation, and this season is being compared to Corbin Burnes’s 2019: plenty of promise, not enough production.
There’s still a path for the team to develop him as a starter next season and beyond. For the rest of this year, though, the fit points somewhere else.
Sproat should go to the bullpen.
That makes the Brewers’ search for a starting pitcher before next week’s MLB trade deadline even more important. They need the depth regardless, but Sproat’s outings keep showing why the need is urgent. Even if Kyle Harrison comes back quickly and without complications, the rotation would still benefit from another mid-tier arm behind Harrison and Jacob Misiorowski.
Logan Henderson, Shane Drohan and Robert Gasser can handle the back end, and the Brewers also have relievers and Triple-A options who can provide length. That gives the front office room to shift Sproat into short relief and simplify his mix for the stretch run. It also means the club should target a starter who slots ahead of Henderson and Drohan, making that move easier without leaving the staff short on innings.
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