Brewers Navigating the New ABS Challenge System
As spring training unfolds, the Brewers, like many teams, are getting accustomed to the Automated Ball-Strike (ABS) challenge system. Early on, they allowed hitters to challenge calls freely, leading to a quick depletion of challenges during games. This approach initially tested manager Pat Murphy’s patience, but he strategically adjusted as preseason progressed.
Across the league, the challenge rate has dropped significantly. Initially, hitters challenged about 1 in every 15 called strikes, but now it's closer to 1 in 25.
This shift is crucial. Players are learning to weigh game situations-like score, count, and inning-before deciding to challenge.
Holding onto challenges for critical moments is now a key part of strategy, though it wasn’t a focus in the early, non-competitive games.
For the Brewers, this trend is particularly significant. Known for their catchers’ skill in framing pitches just outside the strike zone, the ABS system could impact their edge.
Last season, they ranked eighth in baseball for getting called strikes in the shadow zones, according to Statcast's Attack Zones model. Understanding where these calls come from is vital, as strikes are easier to "steal" from zones where batters are less likely to challenge.
A heat map from 2025 shows that the Brewers often secured borderline strikes at the bottom of the zone. It's easier to frame pitches there, as high pitches are usually aimed at inducing swings rather than called strikes. Interestingly, while hitters challenge more at the bottom, they don’t do so as much as the map suggests.
Players are still adjusting to the personalized strike zones based on their height. While the top of the zone seems to have lowered, the bottom remains largely unchanged.
This stability might allow the Brewers to continue benefiting from slightly out-of-zone strikes, especially since hitters are cautious about challenging low pitches due to a lower success rate. William Contreras, the Brewers' catcher, excels at framing these low pitches, which could be advantageous.
However, the challenge rate for catchers has remained steady. As the most patient team in baseball, the Brewers have noticed a consistent rate of challenges against them.
Opposing catchers challenge about 1 in every 50 pitches taken for a ball, resulting in frequent overturns against the Brewers. This will require strategic adjustments throughout the season.
The Brewers play a unique brand of baseball, and they can’t afford to overhaul their approach with every rule change. Instead, they must adapt their existing strategies to accommodate new challenges without compromising efficiency. By closely monitoring league trends, they aim to refine their game plans and continue their pursuit of victory.