Michigan sits at 3-1 through the first third of the regular season, and the record alone is not the issue. The bigger problem is what the Wolverines have looked like while getting there. In college football, the eye test matters, and Michigan has not passed it.
That is what makes the College Football Playoff conversation so uneasy right now. Sure, if Michigan wins out, an 11-1 Big Ten team is getting in.
Even 10-2 could still be enough to get the Wolverines comfortably into the field. But after four games, the real question is whether it feels realistic for this team to lose no more than one more time the rest of the way.
The offense has been the biggest concern. Bryce Underwood opened the season looking like he might get benched, though he has since settled in.
The run game, though, is still stuck. Injuries have made things even messier up front, with Evan Link, Andrew Sprague, Andrew Babalola, Blake Frazier and Manuel Beigel all missing time at different points.
Babalola is already listed as out for this week. The wide receiver group has been the one offense position that has clearly outperformed expectations.
On the other side, the defense has been close to elite. But when the game was on the line against Iowa, Michigan let the Hawkeyes drive the field late, helped along by penalties and a miraculous touchdown. That moment summed up the tension with this team: plenty of talent, but just as much undiscipline.
The schedule does Michigan no favors either. Oklahoma has slid, which makes the Wolverines’ signature win look weaker by the week.
Oregon seems to have found its footing again. Minnesota could be more dangerous than expected.
UCLA is now ranked, a development that surprised plenty of people around the sport. And then there are Indiana and Ohio State, both of whom look every bit as steady as advertised.
Given all that, a 7-1 finish feels like too much to ask. Six wins and two losses would be a stretch, and 5-3 feels like the most realistic outcome from here.
There are still reasons to think Michigan is moving in the right direction. Underwood may have played the best game of his career last week.
The offensive line has improved from game to game, even if the results have not fully shown it yet. And on defense, the young edge rushers are starting to settle in, with Carter Meadows and Tariq Boney both drawing notice in limited snaps.
So where does that leave Michigan over the final eight regular-season games? And would it be enough for the CFP? That is the debate now, and it starts with which games the Wolverines can actually survive.
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Through the season, Wilson has 13 catches for 183 yards and two touchdowns, a step forward from his earlier pro years. The bigger takeaway for Michigan fans is how his recent burst has come with real downfield impact, including a 38-yard touchdown against the Bengals and a 49-yard reception against the Browns, both career-long plays that have made the old skepticism look a little dated. [Read more 🡒]
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Michigan appears to have the edge in recruiting prediction models, which fits the programs position with a prospect whose family ties already point in that direction. His father is a Michigan legacy, and that background has only added to the interest as the race narrows. Notre Dame, though, remains very much in it, leaving the Wolverines with a tense finish ahead if they want to hold onto the lead. [Read more 🡒]
Ohio State Faces A Real Road Test After Jeremiah Smith Erupted
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For Michigan fans, the intrigue stretches well beyond the usual scoreboard-watching. Ohio State is staring at a genuine road test after Jeremiah Smith broke loose, and the rest of the weekend offers a good read on where the national race is heading, with defenses, offenses and a few notable playmakers all set to be pushed a little harder than they have been so far. [Read more 🡒]