Michigan heads into Saturday night’s rivalry meeting with Michigan State carrying the kind of edge that usually makes a spread feel manageable: a dominant defense, home field and a Spartans team that has had trouble finding answers on either side of the ball. Kickoff is set for 7:30 p.m. in Ann Arbor, where the Wolverines are favored by 13.5 points.
The question is whether Michigan’s offense can do enough to turn that advantage into a comfortable result.
That side of the ball has been the weak link all season. Michigan is averaging just 21.25 points and 316.4 yards per game, with 138 rushing yards and 178.4 passing yards per contest. Those numbers have kept the Wolverines from stacking easy wins, even when the defense has done its part.
This matchup, though, gives Michigan a chance to look sharper. Michigan State is allowing 25.75 points and 355.1 total yards per game, including 153.8 rushing yards, and the Spartans have forced only six turnovers in eight games.
That opens the door for Michigan to lean on its ground game, with freshman quarterback Tommy Carr coming off an encouraging showing against Rutgers and another week of experience behind him. Jordan Marshall, Savion Hiter and the rest of the rushing attack should have room to work if the Wolverines commit to it early.
The bigger issue for Michigan has been turning drives into touchdowns. The Wolverines have reached the end zone on only 14 of 24 red-zone trips, and that kind of inefficiency is exactly what can keep a game from getting out of hand.
Even so, the defense gives Michigan a massive cushion. The Wolverines rank third nationally in total defense at 250 yards allowed per game and are giving up only 16.4 points per contest. Opponents are averaging just 99.4 rushing yards and 150.6 passing yards against them.
Michigan State’s offense has not been much better, putting up 19.9 points and 291.4 yards per game. The Spartans average only 110.1 rushing yards, and quarterback Alessio Milivojevic is questionable while freshman Kayd Coffman is also preparing.
Either way, Michigan’s front should be able to apply pressure. The Wolverines have 18 sacks and seven interceptions, while Michigan State comes in with a minus-six turnover margin.
All of that points to a Michigan win, and probably one that feels controlled for most of the night. The only real hesitation is the spread, because the Wolverines’ offense has not been consistent enough to make a 13.5-point cover feel automatic.
Michigan does not need Carr to light up the scoreboard. It just needs clean football, a steady running game and the kind of defensive control that has defined its season. Michigan State does not look built to move the ball with any regularity against this group, and that should settle things.
Michigan 27, Michigan State 10
The Wolverines cover, take another rivalry win in Ann Arbor and keep Paul Bunyan at The Big House for another year.
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