With just about a month left in the regular season, the Big Ten is shaping up to be one of the most battle-tested conferences heading into March. At the top of the bracketology boards?
No surprise - the Michigan Wolverines, who are currently locked in as a projected 1-seed across the board. According to BracketMatrix, which aggregates projections from 99 different sources, Michigan is a unanimous top-line team.
That’s the kind of consistency that turns heads - and raises expectations.
But Michigan isn’t the only Big Ten squad making noise. Let’s take a closer look at how some of the top bracketologists are forecasting the rest of the conference as we barrel toward Selection Sunday.
Joe Lunardi (ESPN)
When it comes to bracketology, Joe Lunardi is often the first name fans turn to. In his latest projections, Lunardi has Michigan as the lone Big Ten team on the 1-line - slotted into the Midwest Region. But the conference is well-represented right behind them.
Nebraska checks in as a 2-seed in the West, while Illinois grabs the 2-seed in the East. Michigan State and Purdue round out the top tier, both earning 3-seeds - the Spartans in the Midwest (setting up a potential showdown with Michigan) and Purdue in the South.
That’s five Big Ten teams seeded in the top three lines - a testament to the depth and quality at the top of the conference this season.
From there, the seeding takes a dip. Iowa is next in line, landing as a 7-seed in the South. Wisconsin and Indiana both slot in as 9-seeds, while USC and UCLA are hanging around the 10-line and fall into Lunardi’s “Last Four Byes” category - meaning they’re in, but barely.
On the outside looking in? Ohio State - the first team out of Lunardi’s projected field. That’s a tough pill for Buckeyes fans, but with a few key wins down the stretch, they’re still in striking distance.
If Lunardi’s projection holds, the Big Ten would land 10 teams in the tournament - a strong showing by any standard.
Jerry Palm (CBS Sports)
CBS’s Jerry Palm largely echoes Lunardi’s outlook at the top. He’s got Michigan as the 1-seed in the Midwest and Illinois as the conference’s lone 2-seed. Nebraska, Michigan State, and Purdue all check in as 3-seeds - just like in Lunardi’s bracket - though Palm shifts them around regionally: Nebraska in the West, Michigan State in the South, and Purdue in the East.
That alignment sets up some intriguing potential matchups, including a possible Sweet 16 clash between Michigan State and Illinois if the seeds hold.
Palm’s next tier mirrors Lunardi’s as well. Iowa is a 7-seed in the South, while Wisconsin and Indiana are both 9-seeds.
USC and UCLA are again 10-seeds. Ohio State is still on the outside, but Palm has them as the third team in his “First Four Out” category - not far from the bubble’s good side.
Like Lunardi, Palm sees 10 Big Ten teams dancing in March.
James Fletcher III (On3)
James Fletcher’s bracket takes a slightly different path, though it still starts with Michigan as the Midwest’s 1-seed - no debate there. But Fletcher spices things up by placing Illinois as the 2-seed in the same region as Michigan. That would make for a heavyweight regional final if both teams advance.
Nebraska also earns a 2-seed, this time in the West. Michigan State and Purdue remain 3-seeds, consistent with the other projections.
Where Fletcher diverges is with Iowa - he’s higher on the Hawkeyes than his peers, giving them a 6-seed in the Midwest. Indiana sticks as a 9-seed, but the back end of Fletcher’s bracket is where things get interesting.
He’s more bullish on Ohio State than Lunardi or Palm, slotting the Buckeyes in as an 11-seed with a bye. That’s a significant jump from being outside the field entirely. Fletcher also has Wisconsin and UCLA as 10-seeds, and USC sneaks in as an 11-seed in the “Last Four In” category.
If Fletcher’s projection plays out, the Big Ten would send 11 teams to the NCAA Tournament - a massive haul that would tie the conference’s own record for most teams in a single tournament field.
Final Takeaway
Across the board, there’s one clear theme: the Big Ten’s top five - Michigan, Illinois, Nebraska, Michigan State, and Purdue - are legit contenders, all projected as top-three seeds. That kind of firepower at the top makes the Big Ten a conference no one wants to draw come March.
The middle of the pack is where things get murky. Iowa, Indiana, Wisconsin, USC, UCLA, and Ohio State are all hovering around the bubble in one form or another, depending on the projection. That means the final few weeks of the regular season - and the Big Ten Tournament - are going to be critical for teams trying to solidify their spot or sneak into the field.
Bottom line: the Big Ten is deep, dangerous, and still very much in flux. As March approaches, expect more movement - and more drama - from a conference that never fails to deliver.