The Michigan Wolverines came out of the gates this season firing - literally. From the moment they dropped 19 threes on Oakland in their opener, it was clear that perimeter shooting was going to be a foundational piece of their offensive identity. And early on, it worked like a charm.
At the Players Era Championship in November, Michigan looked like a team built for March. They hit double-digit threes in all three games, cruised through the competition, and left with a trophy and a national spotlight. Back in Big Ten play, they kept the momentum rolling with 13 triples against Rutgers and 12 more versus Maryland - both comfortable wins.
But as the calendar flipped past mid-December, the Wolverines’ hot hand cooled off. That drop in 3-point efficiency hasn’t derailed them, but it’s taken their offense from “borderline unstoppable” to “very, very good” - and that nuance matters when you’re chasing championships.
In the first 11 games of the season, Michigan shot a scorching 38.9% from beyond the arc. Since then?
Just 30.1% over the last seven. The system hasn’t changed.
The ball movement is still crisp, the looks are still there. But the shots just aren’t falling with the same consistency.
Graduate forward Yaxel Lendeborg is one of the more noticeable examples. He was a 40% shooter from deep during Michigan’s early tear but has hit just 21.4% of his threes since. Still, head coach Dusty May isn’t panicking - and he’s not asking Lendeborg to stop shooting either.
“They’re worth three points,” May said back in December. “If (Lendeborg) moves a step in, they’re worth two.
We want to take what the defense gives him. If they close out aggressively, take away his three, we’ll want him to drive and make the right play, even if that means he shoots 27 times.”
That green light philosophy extends to the rest of the roster, too. Senior guard Roddy Gayle Jr. has seen his own dip - from 33% in the first 11 games to just 4-of-17 since.
Freshman guard Trey McKenney, who was at 40.4% early on, is down to 25% over the last seven. It’s not a crisis, but it’s a trend worth watching.
What’s keeping Michigan afloat - and still thriving - is the depth and balance of its offense. Even during this recent shooting slump, the Wolverines are averaging 88.4 points per game and have gone 6-1 in that stretch. That’s the sign of a team that can win in different ways.
But the margins have tightened. Against Penn State, Michigan went 8-for-27 from three and barely escaped with a two-point win.
They struggled to create separation from Washington after a 5-for-23 night from deep. And when they hit just 8-of-25 against Wisconsin, they paid for it with a loss.
Even in their most recent outing, the inconsistency was on full display. Michigan shot 7-for-14 from three in the first half, then just 3-for-11 in the second.
That dip let Indiana hang around far longer than they should have. The Wolverines still pulled out the win - but it could’ve been a statement blowout.
May, for his part, understands the ebb and flow of a long season.
“Every game has its own life and history to itself,” he said earlier this season. “We’re just trying to get to the point where, when the shots are going in we’re able to separate, and the nights the shots aren’t going in we’re still tough enough defensively, we’re still gritty enough on the glass to find a way to win.”
That’s the blueprint. And so far, Michigan’s been able to follow it thanks to some steady hands.
Graduate guard Nimari Burnett and forward Will Tschetter have been reliable all season from deep. And junior guard Elliot Cadeau has taken a real leap - improving from 33.7% last year to 41.1% this season.
That kind of growth is the difference between a solid rotation piece and a game-changer.
Still, if Michigan wants to hang with the Big Ten’s elite - think No. 4 Purdue, No.
7 Nebraska, No. 10 Michigan State - and make a serious run in March, they’ll need to find that early-season rhythm again.
Especially with a late-February showdown looming against No. 5 Duke.
The Wolverines have shown they can win when the threes are falling. Now it’s about proving they can do it when they’re not - and rediscovering the form that made them look like world-beaters in the first place.