Michigan heads into Saturday’s noon kickoff at Michigan Stadium with a very different look on offense and a very steep challenge waiting on the other sideline. The Wolverines, 4-2 overall and 1-2 in the Big Ten, are listed as 7-point underdogs against an Indiana team that has been steady all season at 6-1 and 3-1.
The biggest change for Michigan is under center, where Tommy Carr is expected to make his first career start. He already played a major role in last week’s win, guiding the Wolverines to all 21 points, though each scoring drive was set up by defensive turnovers. Now the question is whether the true freshman can give a stagnant offense enough lift to matter against one of the league’s best defenses.
Michigan’s offense has been stuck in the mud for most of the season. The Wolverines are the only Power Four team in the country without 1,000 passing yards, and they sit in the bottom half - or worse - nationally in passing, rushing and scoring. There was at least a small jolt in the second half last week, when the run game produced 174 yards in two quarters, nearly matching its previous best total for an entire game.
That will be the first test for Carr, but it’s hardly the only one. Indiana comes in ranked No. 4 against the run at 75.6 yards per game, No. 4 in scoring defense at 12.9 points allowed, and No. 37 on third down at 33.7% conversions. The Hoosiers are also No. 47 against the pass, giving up 195.1 yards per game, which gives Michigan at least some room to try to move the ball through the air if Carr settles in quickly.
The challenge flips when Indiana has the ball, because the Hoosiers bring a balanced offense that has been productive even if it has not looked as explosive as last season’s national championship team. Indiana is averaging 36.6 points per game, ranks No. 30 in rushing at 200.1 yards per game, No. 31 on third down at 46.2%, and No. 49 in passing at 249.1 yards per game. Last week, though, Ohio State held the Hoosiers to a season-low 15 points.
Michigan’s defense has every reason to believe it can make things uncomfortable again. The Wolverines are No. 1 in the nation in yards per play allowed at 4.11, No. 4 in total defense at 256.5 yards per game, No. 13 against the run at 89.7, No. 13 against the pass at 166.8 and No. 20 in scoring defense at 16.2 points.
Still, this is a different level of test. Indiana’s backfield has Turbo Richard and Lee Beebe Jr., but the ground game has been bottled up lately, with just 204 total rushing yards over the last two games against Nebraska and Ohio State.
There is also some uncertainty around Indiana quarterback Josh Hoover after he was dinged up last week, though he did not appear on the Hoosiers’ availability report, which had nobody listed.
The most dangerous part of Indiana’s offense is the receiving tandem of Charlie Becker and Michigan State transfer Nick Marsh. Becker has 39 catches for 694 yards and eight touchdowns, averaging 17.8 yards per catch.
Marsh has been even more explosive on a per-catch basis, with 32 receptions for 585 yards, an 18.3-yard average and seven scores. For context, Michigan’s own wide receivers have combined for 771 yards and five touchdowns.
Hoover has been excellent all year. The senior transfer has completed 108 of 169 passes for 1,660 yards, is tied for fifth nationally with 18 passing touchdowns and leads the nation with zero interceptions.
His QBR of 89.2 ranks second in the country, just two-tenths behind Miami’s Darian Mensah. He has thrown for at least 200 yards in every game and has eight touchdowns in Big Ten play.
Indiana’s defense is built around a disruptive front. Tobi Osunsanmi leads the way with 26 tackles and a team-high seven sacks, including two last week against Ohio State.
Stephen Daley, who was cleared for a fifth year, has 24 tackles and five sacks, and Joe Hjelle owns Indiana’s best defensive grade at 81.4 according to Pro Football Focus. Bryant Haines’ group is strongest up front, and that starts with a front four that can win one-on-one matchups.
For Michigan, the cleanest path is a simple one: let Carr stay within himself. He does not need to force plays or try to become a hero.
He needs to keep the offense on schedule, avoid mistakes, make quick decisions and protect the football. If he does that, the Wolverines can hang around into the fourth quarter.
There was also a noticeable shift in how Michigan ran the ball last week. The line played with more aggression, the backs ran harder and the offense looked more like the version many expected from the start.
Running backs coach Tony Alford pointed to that second-half approach and said, "More downhill runs and zone concepts ... it worked in the second half. So hopefully we can [continue to] do that.”
Even with that boost, the matchup still leans Indiana’s way. The Hoosiers have not lost consecutive games in the Curt Cignetti era, which stretches back more than two-and-a-half years, and they have not lost the turnover battle in their last 31 games.
Michigan has too often been its own worst enemy, which is part of why the quarterback change was made in the first place. The hope is that the switch brings a cleaner operation, but there is no guarantee.
Indiana, meanwhile, has allowed more than 17 points only once this season.
The pick: Indiana 20, Michigan 13
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