Michigan’s path back into the Big Ten race looks steep on paper, at least if the preseason media has it right.
In Cleveland.com’s annual preseason Big Ten poll, released Monday morning, the Wolverines landed fifth with an average ranking of 5.13. Ohio State led the way at 1.58, followed by Oregon at 2.00, Indiana at 2.58 and USC at 4.61. Michigan came in just ahead of Penn State (6.74), Washington (7.19) and Iowa (7.35).
The poll has now been run 16 straight years since the Big Ten stopped holding its own preseason media vote, and this year’s version included beat writers from all 18 conference schools along with a few national writers, for 31 participants total.
There was at least a little optimism for Michigan in the College Football Playoff portion of the survey. Two voters picked the Wolverines to make the 12-team field.
Still, the broader picture is clear: the media sees a demanding climb ahead for Michigan if it wants to get back into the conference title conversation under new head coach Kyle Whittingham. The Wolverines’ schedule is loaded with projected ranked opponents, including Big Ten matchups with Ohio State, Oregon, Indiana, Penn State and Iowa, plus a non-conference game against Oklahoma.
Cleveland.com’s poll says Michigan will face six of the other nine top-10 teams in the rankings, while only three of its opponents sit in the bottom eight: No. 13 UCLA, No.
16 Michigan State and No. 17 Rutgers.
ESPN’s Football Power Index paints a similarly tough picture. Michigan is ranked No. 15 nationally there, with the 16th-toughest schedule in the country and the second-toughest in the Big Ten. The Wolverines are projected to win 7.8 games, with a 3.8-percent chance to win the Big Ten and a 23.2-percent chance to reach the College Football Playoff.
The preseason poll is more of a snapshot than a forecast, and its track record has been shaky. Since 2020, only Michigan in 2023 has matched the media’s preseason pick to win the league. Over the full 16-year run, the correct champion has been predicted only four times: Ohio State in 2017, 2018 and 2020, and Michigan in 2023.
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